Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Richmond Park

Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 10:13:45

Constituency Profile

Charles Hill
Labour Party
Eleanor Tunnicliffe
Green Party
James Page
UK Independence Party
Peter Dul
Liberal Democrats
Susan Kramer
Christian Peoples Alliance
Susan May
Conservative Party
Zac Goldsmith

Susan Kramer
Richmond Park (99.1 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 04 25 Former resident
Evening Standard Apr 19
Zac Goldsmith is set to lose his election bid in the wake of the Nick Clegg bounce, an exclusive Evening Standard poll of Londoners shows today.
In a dramatic shake-up of the capital's battlegrounds, the Liberal Democrats have surged by at least six points in a week, from 16 per cent to 22 per cent after his TV debate triumph.
The poll suggests Lib-Dem MP Susan Kramer can hold Richmond Park, which environmentalist Mr Goldsmith, a rising star of the Tories, looked set to win last week.
Other startling findings include:
*The Conservatives up a point to 39 per cent, which means they could win Tooting and Poplar & Limehouse from Labour.
*Labour down two to 33 per cent, their worst showing yet in London.
10 04 21 Adrian Bailey
The LibDems are currently favourites to win here, and that will only change if they go back down to 20% in the national polls.
09 04 21 Anthony
Susan Kramer has been the Liberal Democrat MP for Richmond Park since the retirement of Jenny Tonge in 2005. In 2005, Kramer won the seat with a majority of 3,731: 7.3%.
The Conservative candidate, Zac Goldsmith, has a high national profile as an environmentalist conservative and son of Sir James Goldsmith.
In the 2006 local elections (the seat is part of the London Borough of Richmond upon Thames, along with the Twickenham constituency) in spite of the fact that the Liberal Democrats won the council from the Conservatives 36 seats to 18 Conservative candidates outpolled the Lib Dems in the wards which comprise the Richmond Park constituency.
There is, in all fairness, a tendency in Richmond Park to vote Conservative at local, London and European elections but remain loyal to the Liberal Democrats at general elections. With a significant national swing to the Conservatives and a fairly small majority already, this may not be enough on this occasion for Kramer to hold on.
Other factors which may boost Kramer's vote are her popularity as a local MP, possible opposition to Goldsmith where is 'celebrity' status backfires and her public campaign against Heathrow expansion. (Goldsmith, however, has also been vocally opposed to the third runway and his public image as an environmentalist may mean he is more associated in the electorate's mind with such causes.) There is also the possibility of the sudden popularity of Vincent Cable, the MP for the seat neighbouring Richmond Park, shoring up Lib Dem support across the borough.
It appears relatively unlikely, however, that these factors will save Kramer's majority. Given the seemingly inevitable national swing to the Conservatives, Richmond Park looks like it will be a major loss for the Liberal Democrats. Richmond Park voters are naturally conservative and the distrust of the Conservative Party which propelled Tonge into Parliament in 1997 has disappeared, leaving this seat as an obvious Tory target.

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