Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Poplar and Limehouse

Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 10:16:22

Constituency Profile

English Democrats Party
Andrew Osborne
Green Party
Chris Smith
George Galloway
Labour Party
Jim Fitzpatrick
Jim Thornton
Liberal Democrats
Jonathan Fryer
Kabir Mahmud
Mohammed Aminul Hoque
Conservative Party
Tim Archer
UK Independence Party
Wayne Lochner

Jim Fitzpatrick
Poplar & Canning Town (69.9 %)
Mr George Galloway
Bethnal Green & Bow (11.3 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 04 28 ridingbyriding
Galloway has managed to make a fool of himself over the last few years. There are enough extreme left voters who won't care, but this seat has enough middle-of-the-road Tories (and Liberals willing to vote tactically) to allow them to sneak by Galloway and win here.
10 04 22 Observer
While the progressive vote will be split among Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens and Respect party, there is a great chance of George Galloway being re-elected with ease. Minorities which make at least 30% of the reading will vote in block for Galloway.
10 04 21 Adrian Bailey
George Galloway has bitten off more than he can chew here. It's a Tory-Labour marginal, and the swing from Labour to Tories across London (currently around 5%) should mean a Tory victory.
10 03 08 Rob- London
To suggest that the Conservatives would win this seat even 4 years ago would have created disbelief. However the candidacy of George Galloway and the RESPECT party has the potential to create a major upset for Labour. Until 4 year ago the Conservatives had never held a council seat on Tower Hamlets (in which the entire constituency sits) they now have 7 (including all in the Isle of Dogs). The local elections demonstrate that when RESPECT split the left wing vote the Conservatives have sufficient votes in the area to take the seat.
Support for RESPECT is highest in the largely Bangladeshi north of the constituency and the ability of the Conservatives to take the seat rests with the number of votes which Galloway takes from Labour. On top of this the BNP took 5% in this seat in 2001 which if replicated could further damage the Labour vote.
As old party loyalties and distrust of the Conservatives ebbs away there is a real chance that this could be one of the biggest upsets on election night- certainly one to watch.
10 01 23 akava77
George Galloway contesting the seat next door to his current one. A large personal following and high profile should see him elected here.

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