Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Buckingham


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 10:26:33
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Independent
Anthony Watts
Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Colin Dale
Christian Party
David Hews
Independent
Debbie Martin
Independent
Geoff Howard
Speaker seeking re-election
John Bercow
Independent
John Stevens
British National Party
Lynne Mozar
UK Independence Party
Nigel Farage
Independent
Patrick Phillips
Cut The Deficit
Simon Strutt

Incumbent:
John Bercow
Buckingham (90.7 %)
Mr David Lidington
Aylesbury (1.7 %)

Electorate:
Current
69560
2005
72551

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
10032
28827
9049
Other
1414

 


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10 04 07 ridingbyriding
198.96.35.219
Speakers don't lose elections in the UK. I for one cannot recall the last time one lost, and a quick google search cannot help me (leading me to believe that it has possibly been over 100 years since it last happened)
Chris
80.47.213.164
Much has been made of the UKIP challenge in this seat, but the last I heard was that their candidate has not been seen in the constituency, so I think John Bercow will continue the trend of Speakers comfortably holding their seats.
10 03 08 Rob- London
193.34.231.235
I am going to go out on a limb here and suggest that Farrage will pick up this seat from the Speaker of the House.
John Bercow has changed considerably from the Thatcher- rite politician who was heavily influenced by Lord Tebbit to something of a left leaning Tory. This has upset a number of loyal Conservatives and lead to questions of political opportunism. It will have to be seen how many of the Tory loyalists in this ultra- safe seat turn out to vote for the Speaker and how many stay at home or vote UKIP. The deciding factor will be how many of the Labour voters (all 3 main parties will not be standing against the Speaker)support Bercow as many Labour MPs did in the election of the Speaker.
I suspect this will be closer than the notional majority suggests and could be an interesting seat to watch on election night.



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