Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Brighton, Kemptown

Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:25:05

Constituency Profile

Green Party
Ben Duncan
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
Dave Hill
UK Independence Party
James Chamberlain-Webber
Liberal Democrats
Juliet Williams
Labour Party
Simon Burgess
Conservative Party
Simon Kirby

Dr Desmond Turner
Brighton, Kemptown (94 %)
David Lepper
Brighton, Pavilion (3 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 05 04 JFBreton
With the last polls showing Labour third, conservatives gain here.
10 04 16 Rob- London
This is a seat which i thought would be firmly in the blue column come May the 6th. This is a seat with the largest gay population in the country and unfortunatly all the hard work David Cameron had put into promoting gay equality and detoxifying the Tories in the eyes of the gay vote was wiped away by the stupidity of Chris Greyling. His seat is safe for the tories but carlessness costs votes, and he may have just lost this one for his party.
A larg enumbe of gay voters have backed the Tories in the past and if enough are able to cast aside the opinions of just one member of the front bench team this seat could return a small Conservative majority- though i wouldnt place any bets on it.
09 02 21 Ben
Ah, an interesting seat! All applications of a uniform national swing have this seat falling to the Conservatives, and it's difficult to argue otherwise. The Conservatives declined here in 2005, though, so Labour has at least a slim chance of holding on if the rise of the Greens takes some Conservatives votes. But that's a rather dim hope, especially without an incumbent. Con gain.

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