Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Brighton, Pavilion

Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 08:46:00

Constituency Profile

Liberal Democrats
Bernadette Millam
Green Party
Caroline Lucas
Conservative Party
Charlotte Vere
Socialist Labour Party
Ian Fyvie
Leo Atreides
Labour Party
Nancy Platts
UK Independence Party
Nigel Carter
Citizens for Undead Rights and Equality
Soraya Kara

David Lepper
Brighton, Pavilion (96.5 %)
Dr Desmond Turner
Brighton, Kemptown (6 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 04 24 ridingbyriding
The media, and the bet-makers, are in consensus on this one. The Greens are going to win their first Westminster seat.
10 04 23 Predictor
The BBC today ran an interesting article about how the surging LibDem numbers can potentially compromise Green's historical breakthrough in this riding.
10 04 16 Rob- London
This is shaping up to be one of the most interesting contests in the country. This is looking to be a battle between the Cons and the Greens. With all their resources poured into a vicorty here i would not be suprised if the Greens did win through. This appears to have been cemented by the carless words of Chris Greyling who may have just alienated the gay vote in a set with a large minority of homosexual electors.
One to watch though i think the Greens might pick up their first win here.
09 02 21 Ben
The Green Party of England and Wales will be investing all of its energy here and in Norwich South (and maybe Lewisham Deptford), which means the result is unlikely to resemble that elsewhere in the country. After the Lib Dems increased their vote here in 2005, they will probably collapse to the Greens this time around after finishing in fourth in 2005, and the Greens will be the primary beneficiaries of Labour's decline as well.
The Conservatives start barely ahead of the Greens, so it's difficult to imagine them overcoming the Green momentum. The battle is clearly between the Conservatives and the Greens, however, especially without a Labour incumbent.

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