Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Portsmouth South

Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 10:14:18

Constituency Profile

UK Independence Party
Christopher Martin
Conservative Party
Flick Drummond
British National Party
Geoff Crompton
English Democrats Party
Ian DuCane
Labour Party
John Ferrett
Justice & Anti-Corruption Party
Les Cummings
Liberal Democrats
Mike Hancock
Green Party
Tim Dawes

Mr Mike Hancock
Portsmouth South (90.6 %)
Sarah McCarthy-Fry
Portsmouth North (1.1 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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09 03 12 Khunanup
The seat is looking more & more like a relatively comfortable Lib Dem hold at the next election. The combination of a bizarre candidate choice by the local Conservatives (stood in Southampton (of all places) last election plus some dubious circumstances surrounding the end of her previous council career), infighting in the constituency Tory party & two defections from the Tory council group to the Lib Dems to give them a majority on the council, make it very hard for the Conservatives to mount a serious challenge in this seat. Beyond that the city Conservatives will be making very sure of a gain in Portsmouth North so they will not want to divide their resources too much chasing a much harder seat & the Lib Dems have got a nice large 20% Labour vote that they will be looking to squeeze, which on the evidence of recent council elections, looks like a realistic possibility.
I would also add that Mike Hancock is a popular, locally high profile MP who has been a city councillor for nearly 38 years as well as being an MP for a total of 15 years in this seat. Just bearing that in mind made this a tall order for the Conservatives, the circumstances since 2005 have made it even harder for them.

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