Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Arundel and South Downs


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:25:05
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Liberal Democrats
Derek Deedman
Conservative Party
Nick Herbert
UK Independence Party
Stuart Bower
Labour Party
Tim Lunnon

Incumbent:
Mr Nick Herbert
Arundel & South Downs (90.8 %)
Rt Hon Francis Maude
Horsham (5.3 %)
Mr Andrew Tyrie
Chichester (4.4 %)

Electorate:
Current
71203
2005
73543

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
8327
25666
13251
Other
3022

 


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09 03 07
99.231.184.167
Seat of a prominent shadow cabinet minister + large margin from previous elections = easy keep for Conservative.
09 02 21 cuivienen7@gmail.com
130.64.137.90
This seat was not without controversy last time (quite the opposite!) but will be very safe for Herbert this time around. Herbert is one of a small class of gay Tory MPs who are important to the Conservatives for maintaining their new image, and I suspect he'll be in the Cabinet after 2010.



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