Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Bristol North West


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:25:05
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Green Party
Alex Dunn
Conservative Party
Charlotte Leslie
Liberal Democrats
Paul Harrod
English Democrats Party
Ray Carr
UK Independence Party
Robert Upton
Labour Party
Sam Townend

Incumbent:
Dr Doug Naysmith
Bristol North West (55.2 %)
Stephen Williams
Bristol West (33.9 %)

Electorate:
Current
72563
2005
70469

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
17858
14089
11346
Other
2369

 


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10 04 24 Former resident
70.29.18.217
Looks like an LD gain.
With Clegg's game-changing performance in the TV debate, the Lib Dems are up 12% nationally on their 2005 showing, and the Tories are barely improving (2005: Lab 41, Con 32, LD 18; 2010: Con 33, LD 30, Lab 27).
There has been no sign of an LD slide. This seat is a very likely LD gain, with Labour and the LDs likely swapping places in 1st and 3rd.
10 04 10 Cade Suffolk
67.71.11.221
Any of the big three parties could win this open seat. The Tories could have an edge since this should be their only target in Bristol.



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