Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Cheltenham


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 10:34:03
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Dancing Ken Hanks
Labour Party
James Green
Conservative Party
Mark Coote
Liberal Democrats
Martin Horwood
UK Independence Party
Peter Bowman

Incumbent:
Mr Martin Horwood
Cheltenham (97.3 %)
Mr Laurence Robertson
Tewkesbury (9.5 %)

Electorate:
Current
73330
2005
76485

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
5431
17886
19200
Minor
Parties
2372
Other
1887

 


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10 04 24 Former resident
70.29.18.217
Easy LD gain / hold.
With Clegg's game-changing performance in the TV debate, the Lib Dems are up 12% nationally on their 2005 showing, and the Tories are barely improving (2005: Lab 41, Con 32, LD 18; 2010: Con 33, LD 30, Lab 27).
There has been no sign of an LD slide. Assuming these numbers do hold, it is difficult to see the Tories taking this one, or any LD seats in the South West.
10 04 14 EP
204.9.162.70
This will be a tight race all the way till the end. Local election results suggest this would be down to the wire. Green candidate is urging people to vote LD, which helps. The one wild card is where those ‘save our hospital’ votes in 2005 will go this time.



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