Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Newcastle upon Tyne North


Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 23:09:09
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Green Party
Anna Heyman
Labour Party
Catherine McKinnell
UK Independence Party
Ian Proud
Liberal Democrats
Ronald Beadle
Conservative Party
Stephen Parkinson
British National Party
Terry Gibson

Incumbent:
Mr Doug Henderson
Newcastle upon Tyne North (95.6 %)
Jim Cousins
Newcastle upon Tyne Central (11.3 %)

Electorate:
Current
68753
2005
68862

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
20328
5895
13574
Other
1024

 


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10 05 04 ridingbyriding
173.32.33.116
We are seeing a bounce for Labour in the final days at the expense of the LibDems. While the LibDems will pick up seats, and are indeed over-performing in the North, the gap in seats like this will be too large for the soft LibDem support to be able to keep up.
10 04 27 Former resident
209.250.145.174
LDs are up 7% nationally, but up 11-12% in the North-East, Yorkshire and East Midlands, with the Labour vote down 10-14% in the same regions (8% nationally).
That additional regional swing makes this one neck and neck, although the Guardian is saying it would be enough for the LDs to sweep Newcastle. TCTC.
10 04 20 Predictor
99.211.152.63
If LibDem retain their currently momentum, they might have an outside chance of picking this one up, but that is unlikely. Though if they are going to pick one up in Newcastle, this would be the one.



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