Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 10:34:48

Constituency Profile

Scottish National Party
Aileen Orr
Scottish Green Party
Alis Ballance
Liberal Democrats
Catriona Bhatia
Labour Party
Claudia Beamish
Conservative Party
David Mundell
UK Independence Party
Steven McKeane

David Mundell
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (100 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 04 12 ridingbyriding
First I wish to note that I am Nick J Boragina from below.
Lets look at the numbers. There is a current swing of near 7% or so from Labour to the Tories. Lets take 7% of the vote in this seat from Labour, and give it to the Tories. What do we end up with?
11280C -- 19264L -- 9046LD -- 4075SNP -- 951OTH
In short, over half of all other voters would need to vote tactically against the likely winner of the election (The Tories) in order for the Tories to not take this seat. Even if the swing is less than 7%, the fact remains that any tactical voting would need a huge base to back it up to prevent the Tories from holding this seat. At the moment, there is no realistic reason to expect that. This seat should not be ‘Too Close To Call’ it should be clearly in the Tory column.
10 04 11 Rhyddfrydol
The Tories unexpectedly won this seat last time, with a resurgent Conservative Party they should hold on.
10 03 23 Chris
I think there may well be large-scale anti-Conservative tactical voting here to give Labour one of their few gains.
09 10 02 Her Majesty's Loyal TENN CAN
Can't see how after the transposition of votes that this riding is actually going to swing from Conservative to Labour. This is one Tory toehold in Scotland they'll keep.
09 09 25 Nick J Boragina
Cameron will require a seat at his cabinet table from Scotland. In order to get one, he needs an MP from there. This constituency will be the one that he makes certain he wins, but do not take that as a sign the Tories will not win others, they will, and in a large margin as well.
09 06 22 David Campbell
This riding was Tory last time, and with the polls favoring the Conservatives it will definitely stay in Conservative hands

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