Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Dunfermline and West Fife

Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 22:03:02

Constituency Profile

Conservative Party
Belinda Hacking
Scottish National Party
Joe McCall
UK Independence Party
Otto Inglis
Labour Party
Thomas Docherty
Liberal Democrats
Willie Rennie

Willie Rennie
Dunfermline & West Fife (100 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 04 30 Laird of Camster
Willie Rennie seems likely to win, though it will be shown as a gain on the night.
10 04 27 ridingbyriding
By-Election or not, I find it a little hard to stomach that any LibDem should lose his or her seat this go.
10 04 27 Boy Waffle
With the LibDems surging in Scotland, as in the U.K. as a whole, it seems unlikely that they will lose any seat they already hold, even one which was only won in a by-election.
10 04 11 Rhyddfrydol
Willie Rennie has built up a powerful base. The LibDems won the corresponding Holyrood seat, and Mr Rennie should buck the trend of by-election winners losing at the General election.
10 01 23 akava77
Tactical voting against Labour, and for the incumbent should see the SNP and Tories squeezed, and the Lib Dems should win here again.
10 01 06 Akava77
I don't think the by-election result here was quite as extraordinary as the Glasgow East result (which really is a rock solid Labour seat).
If there's one seat in Scotland that has changed hands in a by-election since 2005, that is likely not to go back to the original party, then I would say Dunfermline & West Fife would be that seat.
The Lib-Dem majority is nearly 2000 here, and it's quite possible that the tactical anti-Labour vote could go to the Lib Dems, possibly increasing their majority. (Also Lib Dems hold the Holyrood seat).
09 03 09 Predictor
It is highly questionable whether the stunning by-election upset can be repeated.

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