Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Cardiff North

Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:25:05

Constituency Profile

Green Party
Christopher von Ruhland
Christian Party
Derek Thomson
Liberal Democrats
John Dixon
Conservative Party
Jonathan Evans
Labour Party
Julie Morgan
UK Independence Party
Lawrence Gwynn
Plaid Cymru
Llywelyn Rhys

Julie Morgan
Cardiff North (100 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 05 04 ridingbyriding
I must disagree with the last poster. Remember, Cameron carried Wales in the last Euro elections (I doubt a non-party lead by a non-leader, who is non-popular in Wales could do that)
All the polls show the Tories at or around 35%, last time they were sitting on 30%. I find it hard to believe that they will gain in all parts of the UK (as polls show they are going to do) and yet, somehow, drop so far in Wales, that Labour's expected drop of at minimum 5 points in the polls will not be enough to close the 1200 vote gap here.
10 04 29 Observer
This seat will remain Labour. In Wales Labour Party is king and if it is to take place any swing it's going to the Plaid Cymru. Cameron is not seen as a leader in neither in Wales, neither in Cardiff North. Urban seat in Wales means Labour.
10 04 13 ridingbyriding
There are a number of seats where the Conservatives came close to winning last time. With the party sitting on at least 80 extra seats this time around, seats like Cardiff North are going to tip their way.

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