Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:23:10

Constituency Profile

UK Independence Party
Elwyn Willams
Green Party
Leila Kiersch
Conservative Party
Luke Evetts
Liberal Democrats
Mark Williams
Plaid Cymru
Penri James
Labour Party
Richard Boudier

Mark Williams
Ceredigion (99.3 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 05 04 ridingbyriding
Plaid seems down in the polls, not up, while the LibDems are still sitting on their best results ever.
10 04 24 Former resident
The huge LD surge nationally will safely help this one into the LD column. PC suffering from not being in the TV debate.
Ladbrokes: LD 4/9, PC 13/8.
Wales numbers:
2010 (Apr 20 YouGov): Lab 33, LD 29, Con 23, PC 9
2005 election: Lab 43, Con 21, LD 18, PC 13
09 04 08 Ben
I'm not sure why people are so confident that Plaid will regain this seat. Plaid is not exactly popular in Wales at the moment, having yoked itself to the unpopular Labour government in the Assembly. That's going to make it difficult for them to campaign against Labour and against the Lib Dems and Conseravtives everywhere in Wales.
Now, certainly the Lib Dem gain last time was a huge surprise--but that doesn't mean the Lib Dems can't hold this seat. This seat has had a tradition of Liberal support before.
09 03 12 Rhys
Plaid will retake Ceredigion from the Liberal Democrats, but it will remain marginal
09 02 16 MRMAN
Plaid will retake Ceredigion, but it will still be a pretty tight race beteween Plaid and the Liberals.

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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10
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