Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Aberavon


Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 23:09:09
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Neath Port Talbot Independent Party
Andrew Tutton
New Millennium Bean Party
Captain Beany
Conservative Party
Caroline Jones
Labour Party
Hywel Francis
UK Independence Party
Joe Callan
Liberal Democrats
Keith Davies
British National Party
Kevin Edwards
Plaid Cymru
Paul Nicholls-Jones

Incumbent:
Dr Hywel Francis
Aberavon (100 %)

Electorate:
Current
50422
2005
51079

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
18077
3062
4138
3546
Other
1278

 


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10 04 06 Safe Bets
204.9.162.70
Labour racked up some 10K+ margin here in the last election. It would require some catastrophic circumstances for them to lose this seat. Gordon Brown and the Labour party appear to have moved past its worst poll numbers and are regaining some ground. While they may not win the election, it is reasonable to expect safe seats like this one to return to the Labour fold.



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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10
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