Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 10:29:31

Constituency Profile

Social Democratic & Labour Party
Fearghal McKinney
John Bernard Stevenson
Sinn Féin
Michelle Gildernew
Rodney Connor
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
Vasundhara Kamble

Michelle Gildernew
Fermanagh & South Tyrone (100 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 04 27 ridingbyriding
The TUV is not running here, and Connor has agreed to take the Conservative Whip (as have UUP members; this would make him an effective UUP MP) with the proviso that he will vote however he wants on NI issues. In effect, he is offering to be a UUP MP most of the time, and a DUP MP when the UUP does something unpopular. While it might sound insane, it's probably enough to push him over the top. Unionists have held this seat before, and they will do so again after this election.
10 04 12 Rhyddfrydol
Easy hold for Sinn Fein in this seat
10 04 09 ridingbyriding
It could be a very close race here. The DUP and UUP are nominating a joint unionist candidate in Rodney Connor. If not for the TUV I'd say they would steal the seat, but with the TUV in the mix, exactly how this plays out remains to be seen.
10 03 23 S
Gildernew very likely to win for Sinn Fein, especially since it seems both DUP and UUP will run candidates here.

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