Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

York West

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:20:30

Constituency Profile


Aitchison, Scott

Baptiste, Kayla

Cornell, Leland W.

Nation, Karlene

Rakocevic, Tom

Rini, Joseph

Sergio, Mario

Mario Sergio


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 09 28 OgtheDim
    The NDP might win here when Sergio retires. Until then, they will finish second. As for a federal turn to the NDP, the demographics in this riding do not match those in other parts of the city that went orange. Its a much tougher nut to crack.
    11 09 11 A.S.
    Judy Sgro held on federally; but possibly more out of hardwired inertia--had she retired, this could well have been an NDP pickup a la Scarborough-Rouge River, or something close to it. And Sergio's no Sgro--indeed, Antoni Shelton's strong '07 run might itself be deemed a preview of (or dress rehearsal for) ethnoburban GTA NDP breakthroughs to come. In the aftermath of Jack-mania, York West is looking mighty NDP-targetable--the one fly in that ointment perhaps being a high-profile *PC* candidate, broadcaster Karlene Nation. (But given York West's abysmal Tory history and Nation's abysmal downtown-Toronto-ward run in 2010, that'd be more hype than reality, I suspect.)
    11 08 16 Mat
    I think this riding can be taken off the safe Liberal list. Mario Sergio has not put on a decent campaign for years and it is showing. There are few MPP's out there with a lower profile. This is a riding that has demographics that will always get it to swing to the left. It there is an NDP surge it will definitely go NDP. If not, there is a clear basement of support now that is much higher than it was 10 years ago. The days of the Liberals winning by a 50% margin here are over.
    11 06 10 DL
    Sandra Puputello is quitting. It is now 99% certain that this will be a an NDP pickup - especially after the federal election where the Liberals were a distant THIRD in this seat.
    11 03 03 MF
    York West is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the province, but it should be added to the ‘future potential’ in terms of NDP targets. Perhaps Antoni Shelton was a phenomenal candidate, and likely Paul Ferreira's runs in York South-Weston had a spillover effect. Interestingly, the NDP saw declining vote shares in its ‘creative class’ strongholds in 2007, but significant vote increases in many working class 416 ridings.
    So while the ‘they'll vote for a mailbox painted red’ analogy may still apply, York West is no longer dull as dishwater for EP junkies. The Liberal share of the vote in St. Paul's eclipsing that of York West is not out of the realm of possibility.
    11 02 18 binriso
    One of the safest Liberal seats anywhere in 03, the margin of victory shrank considerably in 07 thanks to the NDP and York West isn’t even one of the safer 416 seats for the Liberals this time. But they should still hold it unless there is a huge anti-Liberal tide.

    Navigate to Ontario 2011 Home | Regional Index | Submission

    Ontario Provincial Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster