Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15

Constituency Profile


Brannan, Andrew

Brown, Alex

Giles, Anthony

McKenna, Jane

O'Brien, Tim

Russell, Peggy

Sakran, Karmel

Joyce Savoline


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 09 26 Rick
    Recent polls suggest a close race, but remember that most polls for the federal election predicted a close race and the Conservatives took the riding in a gigantic slaughter. PC suport in Burlington is probably understated in polls by at least ten percent. This is a completely safe seat for the Tories.
    11 09 20 A.S.
    Strange circumstance here--the looks of a PC rubber stamp, but so wishy-washy that it isn't guaranteed, or at least wouldn't be guaranteed were the Grits not in an equally wishy-washy state. And that's where the NDP pops in--they do have a mayoral history in Burlington, and one cannot help but feel their ?latent? vote here has been historically suppressed. And, hey--only the Botanical Gardens separates it from Andrea Horwath's seat. But somehow, I can't see a ?reverse Rathika? upset here--more like a Don Valley East surprisingly-strong-third echo...
    11 09 19 AD
    I don't think the prediction of the NDP taking this seat is completely far-fetched. The PC candidate does not seem that strong. On the other hand, considering how low it was last election (11%?), there's no way either the NDP or the Libs could possibly garner enough votes to eke out a win. I say this riding goes to PC on party name alone. Unless, of course, they like, freefall in the polls or something (which isn't that likely).
    11 09 13 Andrew Drummond
    It's worth noting that last year Jane McKenna came 5th out of 5 candidates for Ward 1 City Counsellor. Not exactly the most electable material.
    The PC Brand might be enough to elect her anyway, but with the NDP rising in the polls, and having the only candidate with any political experience, Burlington may yet go NDP.
    11 09 05 jeff316
    When the race is in the bag, it doesn't matter how well you run it. Papin steps forward, he's told to stand aside. Rheaume steps forward, PC nomination on-hold, he stands aside. Heagle steps forward, PC nomination on-hold, Heagle sticks around, PC nomination still on-hold, eventually he gives up. McKenna steps forward and WHAM! nomination called and candidate acclaimed at a 15 minute meeting without the past MPP, present MPP, or riding chief in attendance. This won't register on the average Burlington voter's radar, but sadly, this is the kind of thing that happens all over our democracy in uncompetitive ridings.
    11 08 23 R.O.
    Although this riding was close in 2007 and Joyce Savoline not running again for the pc's its likely staying blue and Jane Mckenna should be able to hold the seat. liberals would need to be doing better than 07 numbers or have a star candidate to gain any new seats. as of now that doesn't seem like a realistic possibility and more likely the pc's make gains in the 905 this year. making a seat like Burlington a pc hold.
    11 08 20 BB
    The federal Liberals failed to win a SINGLE poll here in the recent national election. And there are Liberal-win predictions on here, LOL!?
    And the Mid-Pen Highway (which I don't even think runs through this riding anyways), is a sleeper issue here with most average citizens (sorry to burst any bubbles).
    11 07 11 binriso
    While the NDP win would be quite interesting, seems hard to believe the PCs will lose a seat theyve held for a while under worse conditions. Im thinking it may not matter who the candidate is and the PCs will take it simply due to falling Liberal fortunes, though if the Liberals are badly routed in the province it might be a decent race if the NDP have a good candidate.
    11 05 26 jeff316
    What's in the PC water in Burlington these days? The incumbent, formerly a regional councillor, retires right before an election that her party has a good chance of winning. The party, having held Burlington for what seems like forever, has a hard time finding a decent candidate in a town full of old money and well-off conservative suburbanites to run in race that is pretty-much a guaranteed win. For the first time in a long time, Burlington could have been an interesting race in a provincial election. However, McGuinty's 'popularity' and the suffering Liberal brand mean that this ideal situation is wasted.
    11 05 24 A Drummond
    I think that the dreams of Liberals here are very far fetched. The NDP seems poised to nominate Peggy Russell, the former vice-chair of the Halton School Board.
    With this strong a candidate and the lasting effect of the federal orange tide that raised the NDP vote to 19% federally, it is the NDP, not the Liberals that people should be worried about unseating the Tories.
    11 05 18 LLT
    This has been a PC riding for over 40 years; however it appears that the ranks of the PC supporters have so thinned out that the party is set to nominate by default local lawyer Brian Heagle who has long and public involvement with the Liberal party and no history of supporting the PC party. There are rumblings of major unhappiness with this situation among local PC supporters and if Heagle is in fact nominated it may be hard to find workers/contributors in the October election among the PC faithful. The Liberals have nominated a candidate that appears to have strong credentials (unlike the cannon fodder of the past)who, despite history and the current momentum toward the PCs generally, may be able to squeak out a win.
    11 02 27 Leo
    The fact that incumbent MPP Joyce Savoline is stepping down coupled with Hudak's strong support for a mid-pen highway that is deeply unpopular here (one of the bigger detractors is former PC MPP & Burlington Mayor Cam Jackson), equals a Liberal pickup in Burlington.
    11 02 25 Jeff Westlake
    While this has been a Tory seat since 1999, a less than 2,000 vote margin in '07 will make this too close to call for now. If the PCs continue to stay strong in the polls, you can expect a narrow/moderate victory.

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