Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:23:00

Constituency Profile


Brown, Mike

Chapman, Joe

Hoffman, David

Mantha, Michael

Tilson, Justin

Michael A. Brown


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 02 A.S.
    Had Mike Brown not been Speaker, this could well have gone NDP in '07. Now he's not Speaker, and who knows, the NDP might be headed for a bigger margin provincially than federally--if only because the Liberals and PCs are likely to be closer to parity provincially...
    11 09 11 GP
    This should be a win for the NDP this time. Their support has grown over the last two provincial elections, with Brown only winning by 1500 votes in 2007. That along with Carol Hughes recent decisive victory in the last federal election shows this riding is no longer Liberal.
    11 09 03 R.O.
    Not alot said about this riding likely an ndp pickup as its a fairly safe ndp seat federally if not allready an ndp stronghold , back in 2007 it was almost unheard of to suggest the ndp could win here yet they won the riding fairly easily in last 2 federal votes . it only require a small drop in liberal vote combined with small increase in ndp vote for this one to flip , current polls are showing more than enough to flip this riding. its also a very rural and small town riding places where the HST is disliked especially in northern ontario where gasoline is way too expensive, Mike Brown needs nothing short of a miracle to hold this seat this year not likely that is going to happen.
    11 09 02 MF
    The latest Angus Reid poll has the Liberals at 21% (and third place) in the North. While regional poll breakdowns should be viewed with caution, this nonetheless suggests that the Liberals are in very big trouble in this part of the province. Mike Brown did not win by all that much in the last provincial election, so I expect this one to flip to the NDP.
    11 05 26 jeff316
    Mike Brown's party-line stance on the recent forestry issues is hurting him personally and politically and he'll do well to get re-elected. That being said, this is a riding that favours incumbents. Painfully difficult to campaign in, Algoma-Manitoulin is almost as difficult to win as Temiskaming-Cochrane. This isn't a lock for either the NDP or the Liberals and will make for an interesting election night.
    11 02 02 binriso
    Close one here, NDP hold it strong federally and could capitalize this time around.

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