Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:20:30

Constituency Profile


Bone, Michael

Colle, Mike

Dervishi, Gerti

Green, Jerry

Rachlis, Josh

Reddy, Sujith Jumar

Rossi, Rocco

Mike Colle


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 Rocco's Modern Life
    The problem here for Rocco is that he hitched his wagon to Ford Nation at the exact moment that Doug and Rob drove the Ford off the side of a cliff. Add to that Hudak's reverse logic of trying to win votes in a diverse city like Toronto by attacking diverse voters in Toronto, and you have all of the elements of Rocco's demise this time.
    But methinks he'll be back.
    11 10 01 LFC Ottawa
    This is TCTC, but I give rossi the edge based on the candidates, the sign war, and money. PC Gain.
    11 09 28
    Yeah, this one now goes Liberal. The ?foreign? word thing loses Rossi more votes then he gains. There isn't a signficant reason to vote for the local Tories this time around just because you are Jewish. Liberal hold.
    11 09 27 jeff316
    East of Bathurst – Liberal:PC sign ratio approx 30:70. Between Bathurst and the Allen - 60:40. West of the Allen - 40:30:30. What’s that last number? That’s the NDP. And that might just be a problem for Colle, although less so than it was two weeks ago. The problem for the PCs is that the majority of the riding's residents live west of Bathurst.
    11 09 19 AD
    The internal liberal poll, is admittedly questionable. Less questionable are other polls showing the Liberals pretty close to the PCs. Rossi is not that popular of a candidate so I predict liberal but it will definitely be close.
    11 09 17 A.S.
    Well, that big-Colle-margin-over-Rossi poll was the first prefiguration of any 416 Tory-free-fall trend out there--but even so, Colle, while still technically vulnerable, probably wouldn't have been as far up front in the vulnerability list as the 2007 result may have suggested. Remember that there were three principal factors that year: (1) John Tory's school-funding gambit actually going over well here, (2) Colle being tarred by a multicultural-slush-fund scandal, and (3) more anti-PC Liberal resources in the 416 allocated to Don Valley West and perhaps Willowdale, under the assumption that Colle was in less danger from a lesser-profile PC, i.e. they didn't foresee what was coming. Now, the scandal's been forgotten, and Colle's prepared--it's all just a matter of whether, in the end, ?prepared? is enough...
    11 09 15 MH
    Several variables are at play here. If the PCs are to make any inroads into Toronto, this is one riding they should do it in. However, Rocco Rossi has major problems as a candidate. He is a turncoat whose mayoral bid flopped badly. The support he seems to enjoy from Mayor Rob Ford would have been a positive some months ago but has more recently turned into a negative, something that is unlikely to change before the election. As for Mike Colle: he is a savvy campaigner. This one is still TCTC but probably leaning Liberal.
    11 09 14 MF
    I'm ready to call this one: Mike Colle will be re-elected, and with a larger margin than last time. The Hudak campaign is losing steam in the GTA and the PCs will most likely be shut out of Toronto again. With a large Jewish community, this one of the few ridings where John Tory's school funding plan actually gained more votes than it lost and that is not an election issue this year. Finally Rocco Rossi is hardly a ‘star candidate’ in the eyes of the general public - nobody wanted to vote for him for mayor and his switch to the Tories comes across as opportunistic.
    11 09 11 Not Non-Partisan
    Gotta love this one - but don't get too close, the spatter will get on you! Two gutter fighters with broken bottles. While the edge would seem to be Colle's, Rocco has cash and a team. No Tory (other than new fed Oliver) has for years. However I thought that Rob Davis, who had a very good campaign, would dump Colle the Younger in the municipal tilt last fall and was wrong. If Horwath has any traction and takes votes from the Libs it will be a nailbiter.
    11 09 02 Canadian Election Atlas
    I am surprised that no one has mentioned an internal Liberal poll released for this riding last month (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1036175--rossi-comfortable-despite-apparent-liberal-lead-in-eglinton-lawrence). Now, much caution must be had at riding specific polls, as they are notoriously bad, but it's at least some food for thought. It makes sense too, as Rossi is a known loser (that is, he lost the mayoral race), and is a party switcher to boot. I was surprised to see Liberals still ahead here, but with the Liberals still ahead in Toronto, they may still keep this riding!
    11 08 27 Greenhorn
    Rocco is badly outworking Colle in the riding. If the current provincial polls hold, this will be a pick up for the Tories.
    11 08 24 Joe Issac
    Liberal MPP Mike Colle would take this riding. Colle is a relatively popular MPP, and his son has now been elected municipally. Rocco Rossi is a turncoat. He would not energize the Tory faithful and the Liberals would work hard to get rid of him. He did poorly during the mayoral election, and is rather a political failure.
    Moreover, a recent Toronto Star poll shows the Colle leading Rossi by 48-30. I doubt the race would be that lopsided, but I think the Liberals would win this by a few percentage points.
    11 07 18 w.f
    This will be tight race. It will be hard to say if Rocco Rossi switching to of all pc leaders tim hudac and that being seen as extremely opportunist, but the tories are strong in this riding. In the end I expect this to just barely stay liberal or the PCs will sweep.
    11 06 13 R.O.
    This riding is an interesting one to watch as Rocco Rossi is running here for the Ontario pc's after his high profile defection from the liberals. it went conservative federally but its tougher to say what happen provincially and what level of support the Mcguinty Liberals still have in Toronto. its a riding that remain too close to call for a while until election starts to take shape.
    11 05 02 Oafah
    The demise of Joe Volpe federally may indicate how this riding will go, but it will take a lot more for the conservatives to repeat on the provincial level if they win it federally. Reasons are:
    1) Dalton is a reasonable and once-popular leader, Iggy is not and never was.
    2) Volpe was caught stealing mail.
    If the Cons win this riding on the federal level by more than 8 points or so, I expect a narrow win on the provincial level as well.
    11 03 21 Spunky
    The defection of Rocco Rossi to the Tories is indicative of a growing malaise within the Ontario Liberal Party. He is merely a high profile representative of a growing number of disillusioned McGuinty Liberals. Decay from within is the most damaging. Barring a campaign meltdown, Eglinton-Lawrence will be the first Liberal stronghold in Fortress Toronto to fall to the Tories on October 6.
    11 03 13 OgtheDim
    Rossi did not exactly fill himself with glory in his local mayoral candidacy - his musings about transit and other policies were not well received. Colle is a very strong constituency worker as well. Yes, the Tories are going to put a lot into this riding but it will rely upon a PC wave for Rossi to get in.
    11 02 24 Craig
    This is a prime PC target, but I still think the Liberals will hang on. Rocco Rossi may be seen as a turncoat and could backfire on them, especially in the eastern part of the riding where even Rob Ford couldn't win! In addition, John Tory's faith-based education plan may have helped the PC's here even if it destroyed them in most of the rest of Ontario. Since the rural base may be stronger, it may play into the hands of the Liberals. I don't see this one changing hands.
    11 02 18 seasaw
    Yes, this riding's never voted PC before at least a large part of it anyway. Mike Colle didn't win by much the last time. Tho PC's have Rocco Rossi running. Rossi's well respected by both Tories and Liberals, Colle's sure to lose some votes to Rossi, enough to ensure a Rossi victory.

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