Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Etobicoke North

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:20:30

Constituency Profile


Baghel, Gopal

Ceolin, Claudio

Gill, Gurleen

McConnell, James

Qaadri, Shafiq

Sharma, Vrind

Singh, Karm

Shafiq Qaadri


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 05 Elections Critic
    This riding is a close riding to call it will be a 3 way race. The NDP is candidate is seen everywhere, thus the momentum is with him. Sharma's strong performance on the debate and the PC candidate not showing up adds to the NDP momentum. I call this an NDP win by 350 votes.
    11 10 05 Happy Warrior
    Two weeks ago I recieved a copy of a Toronto Sun article about Qaadri's comment that there were ‘too many white people’ in government agencies and boards. Last week I got a campaign brochure from Singh outlining that Qaadri lives 21 km away from the riding. Today I got flyer explaining the Liberal Government's sex ed curriculum with phrases like ‘cross dressing for six year-olds’. I am not certain how widely distributed these flyers were, but they were very persuasive. If Singh has the resources to get this literature out the door he just may squeek by. I predict a 350 vote victry for Karm Singh.
    11 09 21 AD
    I predict easy Liberal win. Even under the polls where the Liberal vote was way down they were projected to win (as posted in a Huffpo article). With the LPO doing better in the recent round of polling, I say this one will remain red. Provided, of course, current trends continue.
    11 09 20 Happy Warrior
    I am ready to say that the Liberals are going to lose this riding. I just got a flyer from Karm Singh the PC candidate inviting me to meet Tim Hudak at his campaign office. The riding must be in play or Hudak would not be stopping in a riding the PC's lost by 10,000 votes last election.
    Secondly, I did a ?drive-by? of each campaign office last Saturday evening. Qaadri's office was quiet but there were three people there working. Singh's office was much busier and there seemed to be about two hundred people outside enjoying a movie with what looked like Karm Singh balloons in every kid's hands(I never saw a campaign movie night).
    Thirdly, today all candidates were invited by Humber Student Federation to speak. Singh didn't show up. The other candidates did. There must have been 100 students asking questions and listening to the debate. Half were journalism students. The other half were definitely non-resident in the riding. After hearing the debate and determining that the students didn't live in the riding I was convinced the winner was Singh. If he was canvassing door to door he probably garnered more votes during that three hour period than had he gone to the debate.
    Finally, Qaadri has a lot more election signs on the boulevard of busy streets like Albion Rd and Steeles Ave. But those are not sign commitments from voters. Singh has fewer signs but on front lawns from real voters.
    I am committed to doing more research and to update this prediction if need be. But for now, I am calling this one as a PC win.
    11 09 17 A.S.
    Actually, Happy Warrior, the ?very telling trend towards Conservative parties? was rather blunted in Etobicoke North this past federal election--here, in the supposed heart of Ford Nation, the Cons only gained 2 points from their '88 share. Indeed, demographically and all, it's the kind of seat that could, these days, be better primed for an *NDP* upset--something a la Scarborough-Rouge River or Bramalea-Gore-Malton, rather than a mere hangover from Ed Philip days--though that may be compromized by nomination-battle disarray here. So, I'll call it for the Liberals, but very tentatively...
    11 09 16 Double J
    Etobicoke North is one of the safest Liberal ridings in Canada. Kirsty Duncan won easily here in May when the Federal Liberals were reduced to only 34 seats. Qaadri isn't high profile at Queen's Park but he easily has the best campaign team on the ground in this riding and the with the Liberals ahead in the polls there is no way the NDP pick up this seat.
    It also helps Qaadri that the Tory campaign is going nowhere so the Liberals won't lose any of their votes to the right. Easy win for Qaadri.
    Time to call this riding.
    11 09 06 Happy Warrior
    Look at the 2007 provincial results for a moment, then look at the May 2nd federal results. There seems to be a very telling trend towards Conservative parties. federal support doesn't always translate into provincial support so I am not ready to declare this a Conservative victory yet but the trend is going in the ‘right’ direction. Fact is Liberal MPP Qaadri is a fulltime doctor(is there any other kind) and a part-time MPP. The PC's have nominated a young Punjabi Canadian man who strikes an attractive figure with his young wife and family. The contrast between the two will make for interesting media profiles. The NDP candidate has been seen everywhere. His hard work and the ndp bump from the loss of Jack layton will hurt Qaadri by stealing votes from his left flank. Perhaps the ghost of Ed Phillips will rise up and lend a hand. I will be watching this one closely. Right now it's too close to call.
    11 09 02 Canadian Election Atlas
    Not sure why this seat is too close to call. It went Liberal by over 33 points in 2007, and the Liberals won here by 10 points in the federal election. The NDP has a history here, but it may be long gone, due to changing demographics (although the demographics of the riding could be ripe for the NDP!). This is one of the few safe Liberal seats in the province.
    11 03 16 binriso
    Shouldn?t be much doubt here that the Liberals win it, 34 point margin last time, and there were a few negative posts on the mpps ineffectiveness etc. probably not as big of a win but solid nonetheless.
    11 03 07 B.O.
    Although Doug Ford has said he will not be running here, I will still mark this riding too close to call only because it is the heart of Ford country. That said, the Tories only got 21% here in 2007 and got a similar 21.5% in 2003. But then again this riding includes Toronto City Council's Ward 1 which was the only ward in which a Ford-endorsed candidate beat an incumbent. However, I'm sure that a major factor in the upset of Suzan Hall was the fact that Rob Ford represented the neighbouring Ward 2. Of course during the Harris years this riding only went Conservative with 38% of the vote or less on a vote split with the NDP. Since Ed Philip stopped running here, however, the NDP has become much less of a factor in the riding. The Conservatives certainly have a chance to win here but for them to pull it off it would take a strong campaign on both the local and province-wide level.
    11 02 28 SB
    This will probably be one of Tim Hudak's only victories in Toronto. Incumbent backbencher MPP Shafiq Qaadri hasn't really been out there, whether its in Queen's Park or his constituency. If the Liberal government's popularity stays the same, the Tories can easily pick this seat up.

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