Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:37:37

Constituency Profile


Crack, Grant

Gosselin, Marilissa

Howarth, Taylor

Jean-Louis, Bonnie

Leduc, Carl

Miller, Phil

Jean-Marc Lalonde


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 Marco Ricci
    What may determine this riding is not necessarily whether the candidate is an Anglophone or a Francophone, but on which PARTY is viewed most favourably by Francophones. Remember that the PC's have not been popular in recent elections because Mike Harris tried to shutdown the French hospital, the Montfort. On top of that, while McGuinty speaks French, Hudak does not. And both the French and English media in Ottawa have raised concerns about Hudak's commitment to French services.
    Therefore, even if the Conservative has been working hard here, she could be harmed by her party's image on Francophones.
    11 10 04 A.S.
    Hmmm...thanks to the perfect combination of incumbent retirement, an odd choice of Grit candidate and federal trends, looks like we're on the brink of the biggest U-turn of all this election cycle--but the caveat is the usual one: the strengths of the provincial parties relative to their federal counterparts. And besides, given the existing margin, said U-turn could *still* bluff into a marginal Liberal win...
    11 10 04 binriso
    Just to be different, if the Liberals end up as far ahead in the polls as they have been in the last couple days (more than 5) they will probably win this seat regardless of candidates, which would be unfortunate if their candidate is as weak as some people claim.
    11 10 04 Ottawa LFC
    Mme. Gosselin has all the required resources for e-day as she had for the past year. Against a unilingual English Liberal, this is a PC win.
    11 10 03 Laurie Seguin
    PCs will win this by 15%, minimum, and not because their candidate is Francophone while the Liberal is an Anglophone. The reason they win is because the PC candidate has been a machine, working the riding for a year knocking on doors and trashing the Liberal record in the media with tremendous skill. Very few weeks have gone by in the past year without her getting a good story written about her campaign, and she’s deemed a rising star in the Tory ranks, and a likely cabinet minister. On the other hand the Liberal candidate is actually quite weak. His message is muddied and despite his eleven years as mayor, he is a very nervous fellow who has done very poorly at the local debates.
    11 10 03 Marco Ricci
    Liberal candidate Grant Crack has picked up the endorsement of The Ottawa Citizen. Endorsements do not determine elections by themselves of course, but this could give him some help going into the final week if the vote is close. The Ottawa Citizen also seems to think that Crack will keep the riding red, so perhaps the earlier talk of a Conservative win here is not correct. We'll have to wait and see on Thursday.
    11 09 30 Troy Davidson
    I won't make a definite prediction here yet one way or another because I don't feel knowledgable enough about the sentiment on the ground yet. However, I wanted to point out 1 or 2 things. It's not completely accurate as someone said below, that Lalonde's margin of victory went down in every election. Lalonde actually started out with only 55% of the vote when he won in 1995 and in 1999 he again won 55% of the vote. His vote then actually went UP to 65% in 2003, then went down to 60% in 2007. So Lalonde's peak was in 2003, but his vote in 2007 was actually higher than what he started out with in 1995. Although Lalonde is not running again, I'm not sure if the PC's are guaranteed to win here just because they have a Francophone candidate. Since the Liberals have won this riding by 2-1 margins provincially for many years, that stil leaves them with a base of support here, even with an Anglophone candidate. It's important to remember also that while the Liberal candidate may be an Anglophone, it's not as if he doesn't speak French. He is bilingual and his children apparently also go to French school. I guess the question is whether the Liberal vote will crater here provincially the way it did in the federal riding. I can't determine that yet.
    11 09 29 Marco Ricci
    I don't live in this riding, but I live in a bordering riding. I do find it odd that the Liberals would not nominate a Francophone candidate here, although their failure to do so is not necessarily fatal. Not all voters in G-P-R are Francophone as there is a large Anglophone population as well. In addition, although Jean-Marc Lalonde is not running again, the Liberals won 60% of the vote here in 2007. That is a large margin of victory. So while the provincial numbers are lower in 2011 than they were in 2007, will the Liberals necessarily lose a riding that they won by a huge majority only 4 years ago? A lot of Liberal voters would have to switch to the PC's in order for that to happen, so the Liberals may still have a shot at winning here.
    11 09 27 D.C
    Without the Lalonde bump Crack is doomed in the francophone riding. This is tory country now, the rural areas of Eastern Ontario are tired of supporting the Liberal party of Toronto. The polls seem to support this too in the region
    11 09 24 Double J
    I'm surprised Glengary Prescott Russell hasn't been called for the Tories yet. Jean Marc Lalonde held this riding for the Liberals but every election his grip on the seat got weaker. Despite the large francophone population, this is a rural riding and rural Ontario is Tory country. This will be an easy victory for Marilissa Gosselin.
    11 09 22 maxvillejim
    Although this riding is a traditional Liberal stronghold, they left the nomination date too late for their candidate to hit the ground running. PC's have been organised and working the riding for months. Liberal didn't get their signs until late in week 1 of the campaign. Also the local riding association is divided about having an Anglophone nominee, plus retiring MPP Lalonde's supporters are older, and more dedicated to him than the Liberal Party. It may come down to less than 500 votes, and who is better organized on election day.
    11 09 21 steve
    Tories have destroyed the Liberals in the sign war. I’ve never seen such dominance in what many thought would be a tight race. Only a few Crack signs and I haven’t seen a single one actually on a lawn.
    Liberals are putting all their signs together in big bunches on public property, proving they have little-to-no support by actual voters.
    Even in Hawkesbury, once a Liberal stronghold, the Tories have lawn signs.
    11 09 11 Sean O
    Whoever said the PC candidate doesn?t have a grasp of the issues has no idea what he?s talking about. She?s the first politician to come out against the Russell dump, a huge issue in the riding. And she is a former senior executive of Waste Management, so she knows what she?s talking about on that front. She was born on a farm and understands agriculture issues. And she?s an accountant who understands that families are pinched with McGuinty?s tax hikes and inflated hydro rates. Grant Crack on the other hand is a small town mayor that is not known at all in Prescott-Russell, the bulk of the riding. Marilissa isn?t going to win by 8000, but she?s going to win.
    11 09 08 MF
    With Lalonde leaving and the rightward shift in this part of the province, this should be one of the most dramatic electoral shifts in the province.
    11 09 08 Jay
    It is quite clear that the people calling this election blue have never spoken to the candidate. She has no grasp of the issues and feels that simply being fracophone is good enough to win. Never underestimate a sitting Mayor who is bilingual and clearly has the experience needed for this riding. This riding stays red by 8000 votes.
    11 08 17 J.B.
    Liberals nominated a unilingual anglophone in a riding that is almost 70% francophone. Rumour was that they pushed the nomination back to mid-August in hopes of giving a Liberal francophone nomination contestant time to organize against him, with retiring MPP Jean-Marc Lalonde publicly saying he wanted a francophone to win to continue his work on language rights.
    On the other end of it, the PCs have Marilissa Gosselin, a francophone who is in the media almost weekly. She's been at it for a year, Crack will have 50+ days. This isn't going to be as tight as people think.
    11 08 16 chad_bowie@hotmail.com
    Before the Liberals nominated their candidate this was looking to go Conservative. PC candidate Marilissa Gosselin, a francophone, has been going strong for a year, in the media on an almost weekly basis slamming the Liberal record, and she is likely going to be in cabinet if elected. And don't forget, they won it federally by 11,000 votes.
    So now that the Liberals have nominated an anglophone as their candidate, my prediction goes from 'looking to go Conservative' to a 'Conservative lock'. This race is done. Put it in the PC column.
    11 08 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    The Liberals finally nominated a candidate here in North Glengarry mayor Grant Crack. The downside for them is, he has an anglo name and is from the most Anglo part of the riding. This riding was pretty safe for the Liberals in the past, but with no incumbent anything can really happen here. However, I predict that the Liberals will keep this seat. It may have gone Tory federally, but different dynamics are at play provincially. McGuinty is from the region, and the provincial conservatives are more out of touch with the inhabitants of the riding.
    11 07 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Okay, so the guy who's been MPP for ages and won with 60% of the vote is not running now. That changes this story drastically. TCTC and we'll have to wait and see.
    11 06 21 seasaw
    The previous poster is bang on when he says that long time MPP's with 60% support usually don't get turfed in one election, but Mr Lalonde, along with many long time Liberals, is retiring. With Lalonde gone this becomes a prime PC target seat. One for the Tories.
    SUB-Date 11 06 21
    11 06 15 wyatt
    Look for a PC win by 1000-2000 votes. With Lalonde out of the race, this opens up. Pierre Lemieux expanded his lead federally, and it is a very rural riding. It won't be a runaway, and I don't expect to see the prediction changed until very late in the race.
    11 06 13 R.O.
    Jean Marc Lalonde has announced his retirement from provincial politics and puts this riding in at least the too close to call category . likely looking at a similar type of race to what happened here in 2006 federally when it was vacant and very close finish in the end. no word yet on who the new liberal candidate will be , Marilissa Gosselin was nominated for Ontario pc's several months ago so we know who main competitor be. its tough to say if ridings voters remain loyal to mcguinty liberals or willing to give Ontario pc's a chance.
    11 03 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    People who have been MPs for ages and who win 60% of the vote don't usually get turfed in one election. Usually there is a noticable drop in support and then the loss comes in the next election. Granted this riding has gone CPC federally but it's also one where voters seem to be shifting back to the Liberals. No, this one will stay Liberal but there will be a drop in support.
    11 03 20 J. Stephenson
    Should be a squeaker, but with the riding on the federal level now in the hands of the PC's, there will be a lot of volunteer support for the PC candidate. Also, at this time it looks like Jean Marc Lalonde will run again as the Liberal candidate. Although he's easily won in the past, I get the feeling that not only the constituents want someone new (and younger) but so do members of the local Liberal riding association. The pressure is on him to keep the riding, and then retire two years down the road. If the PC's look like they are going to win easily, then I think this riding may follow the trend.
    11 03 19 M.K
    Tea Party Movement GPR??? Hmmm...very unlikely. GPR has grown to work together hand in hand with both french and english communities for hundreds of years. The antics of a ‘Tea Party’ style of politics will not divide this population like it has in the west. With or without Mr. Lalonde this community will stick together!
    11 02 15 Craig
    I'm going to boldly predict a PC pickup of this riding. Sure, Jean-Marc Lalonde is a long-time MPP and this has been Liberal forever provincially. However, federally, this has seen a monumental shift in the last few years from a Liberal fortress to solidly Conservative. If Lalonde steps aside and opens the seat as rumored, that would open the door for a PC takeover. This was one of only a small handful of ridings to support Randy Hillier in the PC leadership race as well, so there is clearly a Tea Party movement here as well, and if they successfully tap into that, they can significantly raise their numbers.

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