Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:35:50

Constituency Profile


Armstrong, James

Harness, Brad

Hill, Joe

Jackson, Tom

McNaughton, Monte

Van Bommel, Maria

Vander Vloet, Marinus

Maria Van Bommel


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 09 28 R.O.
    This is Monte Mcnaughton's chance to become mpp for the riding , last election few pc candidates in liberal ridings had any chance after John Tory ruined his chance at becoing premier over the religious schools. but this is a new election and many voters have grown tired of Mcguintys government and constent tax increases. anywas the Ontario pc's have to make gains in rural Ontario if there caucus is to grow this election and Lambton Kent Middlesex should be one of those ridings.
    11 09 23 AD
    This should be an easy PC win. The LPO has incumbency advantage but the PCs should see some gains from also running their candidate. The fact it was relatively close last time under 2007 numbers and the PC gains in polling is what I base my prediction for a PC win on.
    11 09 20 Winger
    All of the three main party candidates are dedicated and passionate and each has a negative that follows them. Joe Hill for the NDP does not currently live in the riding (mistake), Maria Van Bommel for the Liberals chose not to open a campaign office in Wallaceburg (mistake-bad optics)and Monte McNaughton the Conservative has been a no show at debates on agriculture, education and so far a forum on health care (big mistake as health care is a huge issue in Wallaceburg).
    11 09 20 Bigchief
    McNaughton has a ton more signs, is knocking on doors and is out-working his opponent. McNaughton was close last election with Tory around his neck, I cannot see him losing a second time with a more popular leader.
    McNaughton wins fairly easily.
    11 09 18 A.S.
    If Hudak's poised to gain a fair pocketful of seats, this is one of them--judging from the margin, McNaughton *should* have won it in '07 but for John Tory's bumbling. And if Van Bommel retired, it'd be McNaughton's in a cinch. Even with Van Bommel sticking it out, it leans cinch-y--but only leans; and with Hudak's uncertain campaign, maybe it's better to view it as still-uncertain...
    11 03 24 jeff316
    Van Bommel is a class act and combined with her farming roots it may be enough to save her, even if the Liberals lose power.
    11 03 16 LKM Ex-Pat
    This is my home riding.
    The Liberals won here in 2003 on account of McGuinty's coattails and the overwhelming desire for change across the province. They held it in 2007 due to the uninspired performance of John Tory.
    But make no mistake - this is the conservative heartland. If Hudak appeals to the party's true-blue base then McNaughton will win this riding hands-down.
    11 03 14 Adrian
    Van Bommel announced last month she's running for re-election, and should hold the seat. People remember closed schools and hospitals in rural areas, and municipal downloading that the Tories wrought on taxpayers.
    11 03 07 Craig
    Since reports suggest Maria Van Bommel will be retiring, this open seat should be ripe for the picking. With a margin of only about 3,000 despite an easy campaign, it would be tough even if she runs again. Regardless, I think this seat is going blue, narrowly if Van Bommel runs again and solidly if the seat opens up.

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