Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Mississauga East-Cooksville

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15

Constituency Profile


Ahmed, Waseem

Churchin, Zoran

Damerla, Dipika

Dury, Jonathon

Harding, Winston

Jones, Lloyd

Shah, Shriya

Peter Fonseca


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 Pete B.
    This is a riding where the PC can score an ‘upset’. The Forum riding poll is showing a very close race and it will be one of the few 905 wins for PC.
    11 10 04 Initial
    A massive poll from the Forum Research survey released today have the Liberals at 40.1%, the Conservatives at 38.6% and the NDP at 14% in Missisauga East-Cooksville. With no imcumbent and no well-known candidates this is still TCTC.
    11 09 22 SW
    For the Mississauga East Cooksville Liberal Nomination, Mayor McCallion ?encouraged? 3 of the 4 people who ran for the nomination in the seat vacated by her favourite MPP Peter Fonseca, whose reckless ambition cost him dearly. They were Nancy Fonseca, Luz Del Rosario and Bonnie Crombie. After endless polling by Ms. Crombie, she decided that she had a better chance at the Ward 5 by-election so she dropped out; that is, if she ever actually entered in the first place. Surprisingly, none of McCallion?s entrants won.
    Dipika Damerla, who is a Liberal Party faithful, and previously was given a nomination in Brampton, has become the Liberal Candidate for the Riding. You can chalk this one up to Party Headquarters and Gregg Sorbara. It took awhile for them to wrestle control of the campaign office away from the Fonseca Clan; but eventually they got hold of it and put the new signs up. However; the Liberals lost precious time while dealing with the passive resistance of the Fonsecas.
    Meanwhile, the Conservatives had their candidate in place for many months and hit the ground running. Rumours and rumblings, mostly among Liberals, are that Zoran Churchin is not the most popular guy in town; but with the old guard and the old families of Dixie, Cooksville and Burnhamthorpe supporting him, he has a very good chance at taking it this time around.
    Both Parties are getting signs up in about even numbers; however, many of the former Fonseca, Provincial and Municipal, election sign locations are now occupied by the Conservatives.
    I think they, the Conservatives are going to take this riding back come October.
    11 09 20 Art
    The Liberal incumbent is a party hack but just as capable as the PC candidate - if not more so. These voters just ditched a Fonseca; so they are capable of making changes; it's gonna be close but on voting day the Lib is more likely to actually get people out to vote. Liberal hold, just.
    11 09 18 A.S.
    Churchin may be ?ethnic?; but he was a disaster vs Fonseca in '07, nor is he of fed Con Wlad Lizon's calibre--then again, his current opponent isn't so clearly of Fonseca's calibre, either. And remember that the seat's already provincially elected an ethno-Tory with a hitherto (and subsequent, for that matter) dismal electoral record: Carl DeFaria in 1995-2003. Though given the lackluster options at hand, it might not be surprising to see the NDP come out of nowhere as a valid option--if more a la Scarborough Southwest than Scarborough-Rouge River...
    11 09 06 Pete B.
    I really think that past history does not count for much in the projections for this Ontario election. We saw that in the federal election when much more ‘liberal’ ridings than Mississauga East switched to the conservatives.
    This is a must-win for Hudak if he is to form government and short of another Religious School issue appearing, and a total PC meltdown, I can't see the Liberals holding this. Plus the 3000 vote swing is very doable and Churchin is an ‘ethnic’ candidate who should play well here.
    11 08 30 AD
    So long as the Liberals are close with the conservatives, I'd be surprised if they lose this seat, regardless of loss in incumbent. Yes they may lose some votes due to the open seat factor but not enough to for another party to get a win here.
    11 08 27 R.O.
    this may have been a big liberal win in 07 but that was a few years ago and dynamics have started to change in Peel region , we've seen the federal conservatives make significant in roads in this area and now hold all the seats in Peel region as area that was once entirely liberal back as recently as 2007 there was not a single conservative mp or mpp here. this was one of the closest ridings back in may and only went conservative by small margin so i supect it may also be close this fall. liberals have a new candidate Dipika Damerla not sure if she will have the same appeal Fonseca had but lack of incumbent and weaker liberal numbers than 07 keep this too close to call for a while.
    11 08 14 Canadian Election Atlas
    This may be an open seat, but I think it is the most Liberal seat in the Mississauga-Brampton area. Cooksville is a very Liberal neighbourhood, and was one of the few neighbourhoods in Peel Region to vote Liberal in the 2011 election. I think with the Liberals polling respectably again, they should be able to keep this seat.
    11 07 11 binriso
    I have a feeling that this time if the PCs are to win a majority, they?ll need to completely dominate the 905 like they did in 1995/1999. And likely take ridings like this one. As of yet I don?t see it happening, but the Liberals could easily drop a bit further in the polls and open up a pile of seats in the GTA.
    11 06 11 SW
    Reversal of Fortune for the Fonseca Clan for certain; therefore I am changing my prediction, at this time, to favour a Conservative win, with odds at 55% Conservative to 45% Liberal.
    There is a women I know of who fits this description quite well; and, she is one of Mayor McCallions’ favorite people. However; McCallion needs to convince Peter Fonseca, and Councillor Chris Fonseca, to let this potential candidate use the Fonseca Family Election Machine. Is blood thicker than water? We will know soon since they got to get a Candidate in place in time for the summer barbeque and golf season.
    11 05 27 Fred
    Rumour has it that the Liberal Party is courting Bonnie Crombie to throw her hand into the nomination hat for Mississauga East - Cooksville and she'll go up against Fonseca. I've met Zoran and am not all that impressed, but with the way the federal election went, and the way the polls are now, he may have a chance to win this riding despite who he's up against.
    11 03 10 SW
    This a Liberal win for certain; and it will be a Fonseca; most likely Peter’s sister Nancy who is currently seeking the Liberal Nomination.
    Despite rumours that Dalton is too pissed off at Peter; to ever again sign any Fonseca Nomination Papers, he really hasn’t any choice but to do so.
    The Liberal Riding Association is in the top 5 of financially secure groups in the Province. Peter controls the Riding Association and the Campaign Office is his personally. It is the Fonseca Family campaign office; it is operated by him personally; it is not a part of the Riding Association’s organization. This is a surprise to many; probably even Dalton.
    The Conservatives have a good viable candidate already nominated; he is a local businessman and has strong ties in the community with his helping build a local church and community hall. Tim Hudak and other PC MPPs have also made several appearances in the riding.
    The PCs have a good supply of longtime residents, community leaders and dedicated workers to help with the campaign; but, it probably won’t be enough to overcome the formidable Fonseca Family campaign machine, going for a political hat trick in Mississauga East.
    11 03 07 Art
    Looks like Peter Fonseca's sister is going after the nomination for the Liberals. Apparently it will be happening shortly. Not sure how the voters will react to all of the Fonsecas running around; but the machinery is well oiled.
    11 02 23 Art
    Fonseca?s gone. Lots of cash on hand to run a campaign, though. Only big name Lib running loose right now is Carolyn Parrish; she was defeated in the municipal election. She turned down the Federal Lib offer in this riding; they picked up Fonseca. She?s not likely interested in the provincial thing. Jury?s out.

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