Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Mississauga South

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15

Constituency Profile


Figueiras, Paul

Harris, Mark

Janoscik, Geoff

Mogk, Cory

Sikka, Anju

Sousa, Charles

Hon Charles Sousa


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 Pete B.
    I disagree with this prediction. Cancelling the plant to win this seat may be sleazy play but I think it will work!
    11 10 04 Alan K
    I was in the audience when Steve Paikin brought his show to Mississauga, and had the displeasure of witnessing Geoff Janoscik live in action. You could have replaced Janoscik with a cardboard cutout of Geoff Janoscik and it would not make a difference. This guy has no original answers of his own, spouting off Tim Hudak approved talking points and basically looked like a complete tool. Not a total Charles Sousa groupie, but at least Sousa tried to answer the questions like a rational person. I'm predicting Sousa wins with even more votes than he did in 2007.
    11 10 04 Initial
    A massive poll from the Forum Research survey released today have the Liberals at 48.6%, the Conservatives at 34.6% and the NDP at 11.8% in Missisauga South. The poll sampled roughly 1000 people in 27 closely contested ridings, so even with a error margin of +/- 3% one should still conclude that the Liberal candidate is ahead by a significant margin here. The electorate can still shift in the next few days but at the very least this riding is be TCTC if not a Liberal hold.
    11 10 02 LFC Ottawa
    What a bad time for Dalton to get hit with the gas plant issue. This seat is TCTC, but I predict a PC gain. PC's take this one and Erindale, Liberals will hold the rest of the city . . . for now.
    11 09 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Said this before (and we were wrong) and it'll be said again; if there is any riding in Mississauga that should go PC, this one should be it. Now we're saying Liberal because the incumbent is well known and running, the LIbs and PC are virtually tied, the PC support has fallen in the GTA and there has been a hint of racism from some PC members in recent weeks (real or not, doesn't matter, just a hint of it will scare people off in an ethnourban/suburban riding). The PCs stil have a good shot and would not be surprised if it did go to the PC but like with Paul Szabo in '08, we think the voters will go with the devil they know.
    11 09 28 R.O.
    This riding is home to the controvercial power plant the liberals just cancelled it was also listed as one of the ridings where liberals and pc's are tied according to forum. so its a pretty close race just about a coin toss to decide who eventual winner is. Conservatives maybe wishing they had found a higher profile candidate for the riding as its hard to get known in such a fast paced riding in just a few weeks of provincial campaign. however this part of Mississauga is historically conservative and went federally this year so it could still go conservative provincially in the end.
    11 09 27 A.S.
    The odd thing about Mississauga South and Oakville is that they're both longtime Tory strongholds which went Liberal under McGuinty and are now being quick-salvaged by power-plant cancellations...while Mississauga South has the solider past Tory history (Margaret Marland even survived the Peterson '87 landslide, and her '03 squeaker defeat shocked everyone), it's probably presently the better Liberal bet of the two, such is the ethno-suburbification of old Upper Canadian Tory heartland. ‘Better’ doesn't mean ‘guaranteed’, though.
    11 09 20 Art
    This riding has nearly always been PC, since forever, until 2003. But more likely this riding belongs to a REP voters feel works hard for the riding. Even though Szabo was finally douced by Iggy, and McGuinty is doing a great job to gas power plant this fellow out the door, on the ground it's about even with troops. Very close, Liberal squeaker. Maybe.
    11 09 18 Art
    The on-going construction of the gas fired plant against the wishes of folks in four liberal ridings means this one is on the slide down. Back to PC land.
    11 06 27 GG1427
    Too close, but I am leaning PC as I think the Liberals will have a similar problem as they just did in the Federal Election. The Party Leader and Platform. Charles Souza is a very good MPP (as was Federal Liberal MP Szabo) but the tax and spend platform of the Liberals will not fly in Mississauga South. Last time Souza won handily as the opponent was weak and John Tory's ‘big mistake’ made the traditional PC Supporters stay home. Voters will reject McGuinty despite a strong local candidate and the PC's will regain this riding.
    11 03 10 SW
    This one is going to be close, again, between PC Tradition and the liberal Incumbent. The windswept shore of Lake Ontario that defines the riding is symbolic of the shifting sands and changing political currents.
    Only in the last eight years has the Riding not been Conservative; this was a seat they held Provincially since Confederation. It used to always be a sure thing for the Conservatives, but not any more.
    Charles Sousa, the Incumbent Liberal, works hard and is well liked. Federal Member, Paul Szabo is staying put for at least one more election; so Charles will not be moving on up to the next level. Even if he had such thoughts; they were nipped in the bud by Dalton appointing him Labour Minister. The Labour Ministry is indeed a labour; it is a Ministry where MPPs are placed in order to pay their dues, before they are let into the big boy’s clubhouse.
    It will all probably come down to how the individual campaign teams form up for the coming election. In the 2007 election; John Tory’s botched handling of the local nomination process for the Conservatives created a house divided. That is not the case this time around; a lot of the Conservative help Charles received last time is likely to return to their home turf this year.
    Another potential problem for Sousa; is that he normally receives some help from the two incumbent City Councillors whose Wards fall within the boundaries of Mississauga South. In the last Municipal Election; a large and very effective portion of Charles’ campaign team worked to successfully defeat a Councillor who is/was (?) one of Charles’s biggest supporters.
    Floor crossing and backstabbing, are frowned upon by the voters, especially in Mississauga South. They have had their fill of both lately.
    It’s going to be a tough call.

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