Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Niagara Falls

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15

Constituency Profile


Craitor, Kim

Hyde, Adam

Jankovic, John

Lepp, George

Redekop, Wayne

Smith, Byrne

Tossounian, Jeannette

Tredwell, Tim

Kim Craitor


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 09 30 seasaw
    I'm looking at the Forum Research poll which shows the Tories are up by 4 points. With the Liberals are showing resurgence in polls and have a slight edge over the Tories provincially, that being said, their campaign seems panicky. Craitor does not have much charisma and this particular area is worse off today than it was 8 years ago. These factors should put this one in the blue column by 'bout 2,000 votes.
    11 09 30 FormerWellandguy
    So Andrea announces that the Ft. Erie and Pt. Colb. ERs will reopen with an NDP gov't. What are the NDPs internal numbers telling them? Either that Welland (with Pt. Colb. attached) is in trouble (doubtful) or that Niag. Falls is closer for the NDP than assumed. Anything that the leaders say or do , or any places visited in the last week are telling about what their private numbers are saying. Niagara Falls itself has been so regular as a mirror of what is happening. If increasing NDP numbers post-debate Provincially is a a sign of increases in support in the Falls, then combined with a big showing in Ft. Erie this could be a true 3 way race.
    11 09 29 A.S.
    Talk about topsy-turvy logic: the NDP offers about as close to a star candidate as it gets around these parts, and Double J claims they chose the *wrong* candidate, simply because he's from Fort Erie?!? Well, hell-O, I'm sure that mayoral experience would count a lot, from an ‘electability’ standpoint, even in the dominant municipalitiy where Redekop wasn't mayor--more so than if he were just another typical union-local standardbearer. And I agree that especially after Horwath's debate performance, we *may* see some flipping-of-places or at least three-way clustering here--a remarkable achievement, considering the parachute-candidated NDP was a miserable 4th here in '07. Though there's a donnybrook of counteracting factors here: Craitor's incumbency, as well as Hudak's native-son-dom--although if it weren't for Hudak being a native son or Rob Nicholson holding the fort federally, NF could well be headed back to its pre-Mike Harris state of affairs of the PCs being terminally third or tied-for-second...
    11 09 23 GPM
    Kim Craitor has brought record amounts of provincial investment to Niagara especially in Ft.Erie where over 50 million was invested over the last 4 years on important projects to the community.Mr.Lepp is not very knowedgable on local issues and for the most part has been trying to ride in on the Hudak name.His lack of an explanation with regards to his tweeting incident and being missing in action at healthcare rallys does not make him an attractive candidate at all in Ft.Erie or anywhere else in Niagara,he is destined to a third place finish in this one.The former Mayor of Ft.Erie Wayne Redekop will just not have the support in Niagara Falls and Niagara on the Lake to make him a winner so it looks like second place for him.All in all Craitor deserves to win , he works hard , he returns phone calls , hes at every event and he delivers the provincial investment to Niagara all and all a very good MPP.
    11 09 19 Just initial .. C
    I sense a lock on this riding for Kim. He regularly breaks party lines to represent the people in his riding and I think people in the area have begun to notice. Lepp doesn't conduct himself well at debates thus far and is running a solely negative campaign against a well-liked MPP. Redekop just won't be able to garner enough support in Niagara Falls to have a shot at this riding.
    11 09 17 binriso
    A significant win last time for the Liberal party and probably a seat the PCs have to take to win this time around, but their candidate seems a bit lower profile when compared to a former MPP who ran in 2007. I would say Liberal for now.
    11 09 15 R.O.
    This riding could go conservative or liberal this year depending on what happens in final weeks of the election, its far from a core liberal riding . its generally won by the party that wins the election although occasionally it doesn't such as 04 federal election when it went conservative . other than that year its pretty much gone with the flow provincially and federally. Kim Craitor and George Leap as well is Wayne Redekop are all pretty strong candidates for there parties. and regardlessly of what some on here try to claim Tim Hudak has a strong base of support on Niagara region and one has to expect the pc vote is going to go up this election , if it goes up enough to pass the liberals in this riding remains to be seen but i expect this riding to be alot closer than in 07. Voters are generally tired of Mcguinty and the liberal government he has lead at Queens Park but its not certain what they plan to do , its a quiet election that remains rather uncertain.
    11 09 12 Tommy B
    Polls are showing Craitor with at least a 3-5 point lead over Lepp with Redekop well behind.
    Craitor is well liked throughout the riding, Lepp and Redekop unknown except in their home regions.
    As things are - Hudak's Harris baggage is more weighty than anything McGuinty has done and there will be no NDP swoon here in Ontario thanks to Memories of Rae.
    Craitor will hold the seat!
    11 09 02 Double J
    Kim Craiter caught a break when the Tories and NDP both picked the wrong candidates. The Tory Lepp is from Niagara-on-the-Lake which is about 15 per cent of the riding that the Tories already dominate. Lepp is unknown in Niagara Falls and Fort Erie and had some unfortunate negative publicity. The NDP candidate is from Fort Erie and is unknown in the rest of the riding. Craiter has major connections with the Niagara Falls Labour Council and will keep the NDP vote down enough to hang on to the seat.
    11 08 23 jdaku
    Word on the streets of Fort Erie is that the PC camp is really having a difficult time mustering up support for NOTL PC Candidate George Lepp. The main reason is due to the hijinx that took place at the PC nomination meeting preventing Fort Erie boy Sandy Annunziata from getting the nod. Not to mention that Sandy's mother is a key PC organizer for the riding and it would benefit him for George to go down in this election and hopefully try his luck in the next one. Fort Erie may park their anti-Liberal votes with past Mayor Wayne Redekop, therefore making Fort Erie a three-way saw off between the Liberals, PCs, and NDPs. In NOTL Lepp should nudge out Craitor, and Redekop will not even be a factor. This leaves Niagara Falls to determine the victor, and Craitor is Niagara Falls' boy. Niagara Falls does not tend to support NOTL nor Fort Erie candidates, and as such Craitor carries the day in this riding. Craitor is the Liberal's version of Peter Kormos. As a side note, it doesn't say much for home town Fort Erie boy Tim Hudak when his own town doesn't hold their nose and vote PC for him even though they don't care for their local candidate. Maybe that's why Tim never stuck around in Fort Erie aftr the ridings changed in 2007 to take on Kim Craitor (Tim actually closed his Fort Erie constituency office in 2006...lol!). Should be an interesting election!!!
    11 08 14 Canadian Election Atlas
    The Liberals won here by 8,000 votes in 2007. While they're still polling as well as the most recent poll shows, they should be able to keep this seat. However, this seat is a bit of a bellwether, and that could mean it could easily go Tory as well as they still lead in the polls. Tough to say, but at this point I'm thinking this will go Liberal.
    11 08 07 jeff316
    It sounds backwards, but I think Redekop's candidacy for the NDP makes Craitor's life a little easier. Redekop is going to suck up a whole whack of local Fort Erie votes that would have otherwise gone Conservative, but his personal appeal in vote-rich Niagara Falls is going to be nil. Generally, NDP strength means Liberal losses but this one is the opposite.
    11 07 31 R.O.
    This is definitly a swing riding and liberals may have a difficult time holding onto it this year , especially if there numbers remain lower than 2007 result. The riding is also beside Tim Hudaks riding and pc's have a quality candidate in George Lepp . Its tough to say if Kim Craitor can hold the riding for the liberals if he isn't able to its most likely it returns to Ontario pc's than go ndp.
    11 07 13 LondonMike
    This is going to be a tight three way race, with a popular canadidate for the NDP, a good incumbent, and the Tories ahead in the polls.
    11 06 10 DK
    As much as I hate to see it I think Craitor will hold on to this riding. He is well known and even more importantly well liked. He is at every event, and I mean EVERY event.
    Also the NDP is set to nominate popular former Fort Erie Mayor Wayne Redekop who will steal many votes from the PC's in Fort Erie. People will vote for Redekop because he isn't a liberal and he is still regarded as a class act.
    I just can't see how the PC's pickup enough votes to win this, and it certainly won't vote NDP enough for them to win. All told I say Liberal hold.
    SUB-Date 11 06 09
    11 04 24 jdaku
    It's interesting that people refer to the strength of Tim Hudak in this area. If he was so strong he would not have bailed on his home town when the ridings switched boundaries which in turn would have pitted Tim against Kim. Give Tim credit, he took care of himself and went to one of the safest Tory ridings and he avoided a sure loss against Craitor. Tim takes care of Tim, Kim takes care of his constituents. Kim stands up against his own Government, a character trait Tim does not have, nor ever did. We're lucky to have Kim Craitor, and as such he will win this coming election.
    11 03 08 MF
    While Niagara Falls is certainly a contender for a Conservative pickup, I think there are several others that are among the easiest. I'm not sure how much of a personal following Kim Craitor has, but he certainly benefitted from a disastrous PC campaign led by John Tory last time. With the McGuinty government far less popular than four years ago, the Conservatives on the upswing under the local Hudak, it won't be an easy ride for Craitor. If there's one only Liberal remaining in the Niagara region, it is more likely to be Jim Bradley in St. Catharines.
    11 03 01 Smarto
    This riding will be one of the easiest pick-ups for the Tories. A large chunk used to be Hudak's and as a former Tourism Minister, Tim will garner even more support. The fact that a Fort Erie ‘local boy’ has a chance to be premier will destroy Craitor. As for the last election - it was an anomaly - and wasn't close because the Tories ran one of the worst province wide campaigns in their history.
    11 02 27 Leo
    Craitor's profile in the riding is unusually high for a two-term MPP, and he remains personally popular. In 2007, what was supposed to be a close riding turned out to be a rout by Craitor over an established PC former MPP. Barring a total Liberal collapse, Craitor should get re-elected to a third term.
    11 02 24 Art
    Lots of tourism scandal in the Libs camp here. MPP is rarely in attendance @ QP; but well liked by the public. Not sure the PCs can float this Lepp fellow. May go with the flow but MPP may be able to hand on ------ if he stays. Too close.

    Navigate to Ontario 2011 Home | Regional Index | Submission

    Ontario Provincial Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster