Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Ottawa Centre

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:37:37

Constituency Profile


Chapman, Kristina

Dekker, Rob

Naidoo, Anil

Naqvi, Yasir

O'Donnell, Kevin

Ryan, Stuart

Zeithammel, Michal

Yasir Naqvi


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 Marco Ricci
    2 strong candidates here, and it will be interesting to see who prevails. Originally I would have given the edge to the Anil Naidoo of the NDP because of the lower Liberal numbers in this election. However, with today's 2 new polls from EKOS and Ipsos-Reid both showing an increase in Liberal support, I think that Yasir Naqvi may get just enough votes to push him over the top by virtue of being the incumbent. Both men have received endorsements, Naqvi from The Ottawa Citizen and Naidoo from Archbishop Desmond Tutu. It's hard to know how they will effect the race. It may just come down to the provincial trends on October 6.
    11 10 04 JS
    Yasir Naqvi's endorsement from the Ottawa Citizen, a LOCAL newspaper, should have more weight than a Nobel Peace Prize (1984) winner from another Country all together.
    Not to mention the article states clearly Anal Naidoo has never even met Tutu.
    11 10 04 Double J
    This is clearly a three way race and that means the Liberals can't win the seat. We will see on election night that any riding with a three way race means a loss for the Liberals. The Tory candidate in Ottawa Centre, Bob Dekker has made substantial gangs all at the expense of Liberal incumbent Yasir Naqvi. The NDP vote will be up on Ottawa Centre and it will be enough to elect Anil Naidoo.
    11 10 03 Edmund O'Connor
    Archbishop Desmond Tutu has endorsed Anil Naidoo. This is the kind of credential that money cannot buy, and which only serve to severely dent Naqvi's chances of re-election.
    11 10 03 Marco Ricci
    Liberal MPP Yasir Naqvi has picked up the endorsement of The Ottawa Citizen. Endorsements don't determine elections by themselves, but it could be a help to him if it's a close race on October 6.
    11 10 01 A.S.
    Still reluctant to call it here; but if the Forum Research poll indicating a 2:1 advantage is correct, it suggests that (a) all that ?hardest working MPP? talk about Yasir Naqvi isn't unfounded, and (b) maybe, just maybe, that nineties-and-noughts ?vote strategically, vote Liberal: the NDP can't win? tactic is busily re-seeding itself provincially after being blown off the map federally. (Also explains a lot of those Forum Research numbers showing surprisingly tight NDP/Lib races in Toronto.)
    11 09 23 Marco Ricci
    The talk on the ground is that Yasir Naqvi is running into some turbulence here, and that the NDP is coming on strong. The NDP could be helped by Paul Dewar's strong re-election victory in May at the federal level. Yasir Naqvi does benefit from being the incumbent, and he has been profiled in the Ottawa Citizen over the past year as a rising star, but whether he wins or loses may depend on the final Liberal vs. NDP polling numbers as the campaign comes to a close in less than 2 weeks.
    11 09 23 AD
    This one should be close but the NDP are consistently up from their 2007 numbers in all of the recent polling. Should be a win for the NDP.
    11 09 22 MCy
    The campaign in Ottawa Centre has been quiet to the point that the result will most likely reflect the overall shift in party support across the province. Provincial polls currently show Liberal support has dropped by about 16% compared to 2007 while support for Andrea Horvath?s New Democrats is up by 40% from 07.
    In 2007 Yasr Naqvi of the Libs eked out a 2,200 vote victory over the NDP ? a margin of just 4% of the votes. This was a sharp drop from the previous Liberal MPP Richard Patten?s 11,000 vote plurality and 45% of the vote in 2003. Last May the NDP?s Paul Dewar increased his majority to 20,000 in the federal election and had 52% of the votes in Ottawa Centre. .
    Much of Dewar?s vote will stay with the NDP?s Anil Naidoo on Oct. 6. If the final result does follow the general trend in party support across Ontario, Naidoo will have a 14 point lead over Naqvi and win by around 7,000 votes.
    11 09 07 Michael S
    The Liberals will win here.  Federally the NDP have Paul Dewar but have failed to find a star candidate in this riding.  In the last election the NDP got more votes as it became clear another Liberal majority was in the offing.  A potential Tim Hudak government will change that.
    The Conservatives will be reduced to their core vote.
    11 08 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    At present, I believe this riding will go NDP. The party is polling much better than in 2007, and perhaps should have won this race then, with a popular NDP MP. Liberal incumbents tend to do well in Ottawa Centre, but I believe this riding is fairly comfortable being represented by the NDP. Will Murray, the NDP candidate in 2007 was also not a very good candidate. Anil Naidoo will have to prove himself, but he should be able to win this from the Liberals.
    11 07 11
    This will go NDP because NDP are in there federally. People in Ottawa Centre want a change, it will go NDP. Social Services, education, the student vote is very aggressively looking for a change.
    11 06 15 wyatt
    Too close to call. Will likely remain that way right into October. If the NDP get any momentum off their federal performance, they could pick it up.
    11 05 28
    To WAC: Sure, uOttawa's main campus is in Ottawa-Vanier, but the St-Pauls and Lees campus (by a hair) fall in Ottawa Center. So too do many of the students attending the main campus, much like you point out many Carleton students live in Ottawa South. Carleton ?straddles? Ottawa Centre and South, where uOttawa straddles Ottawa Vanier and Centre. Anyway, with both students from Carleton and uOttawa living in Ottawa center, and the election taking place during the school year, surely this will help the NDP.
    11 05 26 jeff316
    The time for the NDP to win this seat was 2007, when there was no incumbent and the NDP vastly out-campaigned the Liberals in the riding. Naqvi is youngish lefty-Liberal (from an NDP family, strangely) who is a rising star in both Ottawa and in the Liberal party. He's not going anywhere, particularly considering the NDP is running a political staffer from their federal operation.
    11 05 09 Art
    With the Federal win being NDP - this one is likely to swing there too.
    11 03 27 WAC
    Point of Order Art: Ottawa U is in Ottawa-Vanier and most of the students live in that riding. Carleton University is in Ottawa Centre, although a fair number of Carleton students live in Ottawa-South because the University straddles the two ridings. I digress. The Liberals won this by about 2,000 votes/4% last time and are down a 3-7% in the polls since last election. Meanwhile the NDP are holding in the polls. None of the polls have release any regional/geographic breakdown as far as I can tell so its difficult to gauge what vote intentions are in Ottawa/Eastern Ontario, but the overall provincial polling trend suggests that the NDP and Liberals are in a tight race here. TCTC at this point.
    11 03 12 Mark R
    Change metrics in the polls will shift this one to the NDP. Just depends how large a margin. PC's don't have a chance in this one. One of a few NDP gains in the province and only one in Eastern Ontario.
    11 03 10 Art
    Liberal candidate is articulate and might still appeal to the Ottawa U, youth vote, but with student tuitions climbing into even more unaffordable turf this riding is vulnerable to a good NDP candidate to go after the youth vote. Possible NDP pick up
    11 02 15 Craig
    This is a frequent NDP target seat, but I can't see them winning it this time around after losing in 2007. It was ripe for the picking with an open seat and the Liberals still won. With Tim Hudak leading in the polls, I think strategic voting might come into play here as centre-left voters abandon the NDP for the Liberals to block the PC's, even if they don't have any real chance of winning here. Yasir Naqvi should win a second term with an easier win, even if his leader doesn't.
    11 02 12 GV
    This riding is, at this point, too close to call. It will definitely be a Liberal-NDP two-way race, and it will probably be very close. The Libs won by 4 points last time, in a race that most local observers, including me, expected to be an NDP gain. MPP Yasir Naqvi seems to have made a habit of campaigning for re-election over the last few years (selling t-shirts and paraphernalia with the name ‘Yasir’ on them), and I predict that he'll campaign vigorously over the next few months. However, given the provincial political dynamic, with the Grits expected to lose a passel of seats province-wide, I can't say his re-election is even close to probable.The NDP nomination is scheduled for March 9th, when we will hopefully know a bit more about what is going to happen in this riding.
    11 02 11 binriso
    should be a good NDP/Liberal fight here, id give a little edge to the NDP right now.

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