Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:38:14

Constituency Profile


Gutmanis, Tanya

Lister, Andrew

McGruer, David

McKercher, Doug

McNeely, Phil

Paul, David

Phil McNeely


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 Marco Ricci
    My final prediction for my home riding. It's hard to see this riding go Conservative now. Anything is possible, but McNeely is a 2-term incumbent in a riding with a lot of Liberal support, and if he were to lose it would go against the developing provincial trend. The 2 new polls from EKOS and Ipsos-Reid released today show a decline in Conservative support and an increase in Liberal support and that is likely to help McNeely. It is true that McNeely is in a personal conflict with local politicians Rainer Bloess and Bob Monette, but I'm not sure if that's a major factor to the average voter unless they pay attention to the individual squabbles going on behind the scenes. As mentioned below, this riding has only gone PC once in the last 30 years, so the PC's would have to be doing better to take it now.
    11 10 03 Alison T
    I predict Orleans will go blue on Thursday. True, McNeely has the persona of everyone's favourite uncle however; between the hits in the media from the local councillors on infrastructure and school trustees on transportation funding, combined with general steady provincial polling for the PCs, Lister should take this by 5%.
    I will note that any candidate who gets an endorsement from the Citizen never wins the election. 2003 - Coburn, 2006 - Godbout, 2007 - Fox, 2011 - Bertschi = all losses. Maybe Lister will buck that trend?
    11 10 03 Pete B.
    Ottawa Orleans stays with the Liberals. Not only is it a very ‘liberal’ riding but McNeeley is not a bad MPP. The PC candidate is impressive and just got the Ottawa Citizen endorsement but it won't be enough to overcome a 20 point deficit.
    11 10 01 Dave
    TCTC - A second city councilor has expressed his support for Lister. That is two of the local city councilors. This race could still turn out to be an interesting one to watch.
    11 09 30 Troy Davidson
    It's certainly true that the NDP doesn't have the ability to win in Orleans, as they have never held the seat provincially or federally and never even run a proper campaign here (eg. they don't even put out signs). However, they do still take a percentage of the vote which can sometimes hurt the Liberals (eg. like it did here in the last federal election). However, the provincial dynamics here are different than they were federally since there is an MPP incumbent and since provincially the Liberals are polling higher than they did federally. What's also significant is that other than the one win by Brian Coburn in 1999 when Harris won a 2nd majority, this riding has been Liberal provincially for most of its history, even when other parties (eg. the PC's and NDP) have been in power. For example, former Liberal MPP Gilles Morin held this seat for many years (1985-1999) even when the Liberals were out of power and other parties (eg. the NDP in 1990, the PC's in 1995 etc.) were winning province-wide.
    11 09 29 Double J
    There just isn't enough of an NDP base in Ottawa Orleans to split the Liberal vote enough for the Tories to defeat Phil McNeely. The NDP are focussing all there resources on Ottawa Centre as it's their best shot at winning a seat in the Capital region. McNeely holds this seat.
    11 09 27 Marco Ricci
    Bob Monette switched to the PC's back in the Spring of 2011, so it's not a surprise that he is endorsing the PC candidate since he is no longer a Liberal. Whether it has an effect on the race, I don't know. From what I can tell, neither McNeely nor Lister are as strong as they should be on the issue of French. McNeely needs to be more fluent in speaking the language, but he does make sure all his literature and website is in both languages, meanwhile Lister had virtually no French content on his website as of a couple of weeks ago.
    11 09 26 Francois
    Phil McNeely came to my door about a week ago, by himself. Today a member of Lister's team came to my door, with him (solid bilingual) - He looks to be organized with many volunteers - that with the Forum poll which sugguests the PC's are ahead by 6 points in orleans makes it look like a Liberal upset here.
    11 09 25 Dave
    TCTC - Ottawa councillor and former McNeely staffer Bob Monette has come out supporting the conservative candidate. This could add a new wrinkle to the campaign.
    11 09 24 Dave
    TCTC-Lister is a very qualified candidate, but McNeely is the incumbent. There doesn't seem to be as much interest in the provincial election as there was in the federal election. There are a lot of disgruntled people who will probably vote against McNeely because of the party leader. This is a swing riding and will probably go the way that the province votes, but will be close. I expect a 45% 40% split, but hard to tell which way it will swing. It was much easier to predict the climate during the last election.
    11 09 23 Marco Ricci
    The talk on the ground here is that McNeely has the edge. However, although the Lister campaign started late and he is not as well known, they are still competitive. They have almost as many lawn signs out as McNeely in some parts of the riding and are not going to let him win without a fight. Lister is not getting quite as much press coverage as the previous high-profile PC candidate, Graham Fox, but he did get a front-page profile in The Orleans Star. McNeely is probably running stronger than Lister in the Francophone parts of the riding, and this is an area where Lister may need to increase his strength if he wants to win enough voters. As always, the NDP is invisible in this riding, with barely a single lawn sign to be seen anywhere in the riding. However, while the NDP never campaigns here seriously, they do take a certain percentage of the vote which can harm the LIberals here as it did in the last federal election. Liberal prediction, unless provincial numbers collapse in the final part of the campaign.
    11 09 22 LFC Ottawa
    Andrew Lister, the Tory Candidate was recently nominated, but is gaining strong support in the riding. Although it looks like Phil has far more signs on the sides of the roads, the Liberal signs at peoples homes are coming down in parts of the riding. Mr. Lister is speaks much better French then Mr. McNeely, which is important for 30% of the riding. Look for a PC gain in Orl?ans.
    11 09 11 A.S.
    Re candidate profile, keep in mind that the federal Conservatives gained here in 2006 with a lower-profile candidate than who they lost with in 2004. Sometimes those things happen.
    11 09 10 matvail2002
    Been living in this riding since 2007 and it is too close to call. I would be not surprised at all if the Tories win it this time but one thing to consider is that the election does not bring really much interest into the population in general.
    11 09 08 binriso
    11 09 08 Marco Ricci
    Unless the Liberals have a wipe out in this election, they should keep this riding.  Phil McNeely is a 2-term incumbent now, and appears to be well-known and liked by many of the residents.  This gives him an advantage over newcomer Andrew Lister who is unlikely to be known to many in the riding.  The fact that the PC’s waited so long to select a candidate also leads me to believe that they are not putting as much emphasis on this riding as they did when Graham Fox ran here in 2007.
    07 08 16 chad_bowie@hotmail.com
    Liberals aren't in great shape here with an MPP, Phil McNeely, not overly liked even by his own party, but the Conservatives have messed this up royally by not having a candidate in place yet. This could have been a tight race but now I say this is McNeely's by a few percentage points.
    11 08 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    The Tories have yet to nominate a candidate here, and time is running out to campaign over the summer. Sure, the Conservatives hold this seat federally, but despite the Liberal imposition in the last federal election, they held their own here. There is a strong Liberal base here, and all it will take is some McNeely personal votes to keep this as a Liberal riding.
    11 08 07 R.O.
    This is very much a swing riding even though it has a large liberal base , there are alot of votes here which are likely to go to whatever party is leading in the polls . the ontario pc's did hold this area when in power in the 90's and could do alot better than 07 results. there still looking for a candidate so without one yet its difficult to say what happens here. it definity remain a competitive riding even with liberal incumbent Phil Mcneely is running for re-election.
    11 07 21 Pierre
    Even if the PCs form a majority, and even that is far from being decided, this should remain in the Liberal column. PCs don't even have a candidate yet, and the Liberal incumbent is running again. Federal Tories winning margin was pretty small considering the blue wave in May. This stays Red.
    11 06 15 wyatt
    This will be TCTC until late in the race. The PC lead in the polls at this point would not be enough to change the balance, so it's just TCTC.
    11 03 28 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    This seat has quite a few francophones, and while they usually do not vote PC, if the party does well enough, they can indeed win here.
    11 03 20 WAC
    TCTC at this point. Its a swing riding, whoever wins the election will win ridings like Ottawa-Orleans.

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