Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:37:37

Constituency Profile


Bagler, Dave

Houle, Emmanuel

Laliberté-Tipple, Paul Étienne

Meilleur, Madeleine

Sherman, Fred

Hon Madeleine Meilleur


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 01 A.S.
    It's historically a Grit stronghold anyway; but Meilleur's respected enough in her own right (unlike at least a couple of her chequered predecessors) that she could probably resist a federal-esque anti-Liberal wave--and given that the NDP was in second federally (and won large swaths of what the Grits used to electorally own: Vanier, etc), if, according to Ted J, they're running a straggling provincial campaign relative to PC and Green--all the more reason for Meilleur to prevail.
    11 09 28 Ted J
    This riding is shaping up to be very interesting. Nobody can argue that it's not a Liberal stronghold, so they'll probably win it regardless, but there are some interesting dynamics at play here. There's increasing gentrification, lots of new mid-to-high-income condos being built in the riding.
    Fred Sherman (PC) and Dave Bagler (Green) are both running excellent campaigns for ridings they barely have a shot at winning - both have been out since before the writ. The NDP Candidate was absent for the first two weeks since the writ dropped.
    With Liberal support in this riding down to under 40% in the last Federal Election, make no mistake - it's still a stronghold, but it's no longer a riding they can take for granted. Watch the vote totals in this riding - it'll be quite interesting.
    11 09 10 matvail2002
    It's a very diverse seat, from everything from posh Rockcliffe to Overbrook. Still a very francophone riding with probably the highest ratio of visible minorities who are francophone in the province.
    Meilleur will probably win it if the NDP are not higher in % than in the last federal election in Ontario. Generally, the Tories are not doing so badly provincially since the last few elections.
    However, the riding is changing and it is not anymore a riding where the Liberals have a super-majority of votes. Could change especially if there is a redistricting. However, this will happens earlier federally then provincially.
    11 08 16 chad_bowie@hotmail.com
    There's been chatter that Madeleine Meilleur is nervous about the party's numbers in eastern ontario and is out door knocking now. There's no way she should be nervous, this is a safe Liberal seat and if a disaster would hit leaving them with one seat in the whole province, this could be it.
    11 08 15 R.O.
    Fred Sherman is an interesting candidate for the Ontario pc's but i can't see this riding going anywhere but liberal especially during an election when Ottawa U is full of students. although alot of that vote splits among the ndp , green and liberals but either way its doubtful the liberals lose this one. its mostly apartments , condos and urban voters. without the kind of suburban and rural polls found in other eastern ontario ridings.
    11 08 14 binriso
    Since the PCs are especially weak in this riding, the Liberals should have a fairly easy win but I can see the NDP making gains here, and on the federal side have a good chance of taking the seat in the next federal election/by-election.
    11 02 15 Craig
    With Francophone rural Eastern Ontario seeing major change - at least federally - recently, this is probably the safest Liberal seat in the 613 area code. Short of a total meltdown, I can't see them losing here. It has never had a strong conservative movement, and the demographics and culture here definitely favours the Liberals. Such is especially true if it appears the NDP voters might bolt to the Liberals in strategic voting, a strong possibility if it appears Hudak will become Premier.

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