Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Ottawa West-Nepean

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:37:37

Constituency Profile


Byrne, Wendy

Chiarelli, Bob

Denley, Randall

Hill, Alex

Pacheco, John

Hon Bob Chiarelli


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 Marco Ricci
    The talk on the ground here the last couple weeks has indeed been that the Liberals are concerned about losing the riding and have brought in McGuinty and other high-profile people in order to boost Chiarelli's chances. I probably would have given the edge to Denley coming into this week. However, with today's new EKOS and Ipsos-Reid polls showing a widening lead by the Liberals over the PC's, Chiarelli could still be in the game here. The Ipsos-Reid poll shows that in Eastern Ontario the Liberals have (50%) and the Conservatives have (35%) and that could help Chiarelli hang on here.
    11 10 02 R.O.
    The liberals seem really worried about holding this one as Mcguinty has been to riding a couple times now and eastern Ontario numbers have been the worst for the liberals all election. although this riding is more urban than a typical eastern ontario riding and has alot more apartments than in say Nepean Carleton. its too bad the 2010 by-election results aren't posted on the site cause they give us a more accurate view of what race is like this year as it surely be just is close as by-election and not at all the easy liberal win it was in 07. and if ndp vote goes up here and it should go up, it may get very difficult for Bob to hold on. i don't know its a tough call , i can't picture Bob Chiarelli losing but on other hand i can really see this part of Ottawa going blue as after all it is home to John Baird .
    11 10 02 rebel
    C.J. could use a counter argument or two to a number of his somewhat hopeful assertions. Bob Chiarelli's beloved status didn't sustain him beyond 15% in his disastrous 2006 mayoral re-election run. Second, his win was one in a series of Liberal by-election victories which included gaining Haliburton Kawartha Lakes-Brock. In fact, his narrow victory was the first indiction that the shine was coming off of the McGuinty government.
    Now while I live in Ottawa South, generally following provincial politics gives plenty of evidence that being far from affable, Chiarelli has chosen to finish off his last months (or years as the case may be) of his politcal career as an attack dog for the McGuinty Liberals.
    Turning to the Thursday election, final polls still-to-come but a consensus of the more recent suggests the Liberals are down significantly in popular vote and are either a percentage or two ahead of the PCs or a few points behind with the NDP breathing down their neck. In Ottawa West-Nepean this means they are faced in between an insurgent NDP and the strongly-placed PCs with a very well known and articulate candidate.
    I'm still giving the edge to Randall Denley, espeically if the NDP gets 20-25% or so of the riding vote (up from the 10% or so they got in 2007 and the 2010 by-election).
    11 09 30 C.J.
    This is sure to be one of the closer races in Eastern Ontario but Bob's very well known in the riding and most people love him from his years as regional chair and mayor. Incumbants usually don't win by-elections in swing ridings so the fact that Bob even won 18 months ago is impressive. I've heard from multiple friends that Denley, while certainly intelligent, is not good at engaging at the doors as he often looks down and speaks in a monotone uninterested tone. This contrasts to Bob who is very engaging and dynamic at the door. With the sign race being fairly equal, Bob's presence at the door and his election day machine that has won him many elections should be enough to take him to victory.
    11 09 29 A.S.
    Due to age and mayoral humiliation, Bob Chiarelli was a lame-duck fallback sort of ‘star candidate’--and his close byelection result proved it. I'll presume the lame-duckness is still there--then again, Denley's eccentricity aside, the Tory roots don't run as deep as they seem; after all, for all his assumed strength, John Baird still can't crack the 45% ceiling here federally. (Though maybe that's more to do with Baird himself.)
    11 09 13 MV
    A very marginal riding which have a tendency in the last few years to vote for the winner. However, will probably go PC this time even with Chiarelli as MP.
    11 09 11 rebel
    Randall Denley is a fantastic candidate - easily the best the Conservatives could have found. He stricks me as ?Stephen Leacock? affable kind of guy while Chiarelli, in his role as Liberal attack dog, comes across as simply mean which I don't see as a good strategy to win re-election. The PCs will pour a lot of resources into the riding while I do not doubt that the Liberals (and their teacher union allies) will do the same.
    I would guess right now a 3,000 plurality of Denley.
    11 07 19 R.O.
    The march 2010 by-election showed us that liberal support has dropped since 2007 , although the provincial liberals still held the seat . Bob Chiarelli only got 43% of the vote a large drop as Jim watson got 50% in most recent provincial election here. i didn't really think Bob Chiarelli stick around for long but it looks like he is going to run again this fall . he seems to have become the new spokesperson for the liberals and trying to defend the government during a time when its polling numbers have never been lower. its tough to say what will happen here as ontario pc's made odd more of replacing almost successful by-election candidate Beth Graham with Ottawa Citizen columist Randall Denley. i think she had a good shot at winning the riding although whoever has the pc nomination could end up becoming mpp by the time this election is over.
    11 07 13 R. Christie
    This riding has received a lot of hype, but I find it difficult to believe that Bob will face much of a challenge here. We're talking about a popular, high profile cabinet Minister who has delivered incredible results for this community in just over a year since being re-elected.
    Randall Denley is a recognizable name, but in 20+ years as a columnist he made many controversial (i.e. sexist and racist) remarks, including ripping into Hudak and the PC's on a number of occasions before joining up. I frequently read and often enjoyed his columns, even when I disagreed with his views, but I sincerely doubt that such a polarizing figure stands a chance against a popular incumbent, especially since he has been near invisible since his nomination.
    11 07 11
    Greens have a good Candidate, Alex Hill. He will do well because he has some Greens, NDP, Liberals, old PC's already looking at voting for him in the riding. He knows his politics. People like him. He is very easy to talk to, and is a good listener, and good contributor to the Community. Don't judge people by their age. They might surprise you in the end.
    He has been on the campaign trail for awhile. He is the Chair of Canadians Advocating for Political Participation, and he was part of the group (Canadians Against Proroguing Parliament) who organized a rally at Parliament Hill that hit the world news, when govt shut down parliament in Jan 2010. He also has took action working with Michael Chong on Question Period reform.He also supports the idea of the demand of the g20 inquiry, and to have more action taken on environment sustainability.
    Pay attention to this young Candidate, he may just surprise us all.
    11 06 24 Lynne
    Though I’d agree it’ll be a tough race in Ottawa West Nepean, I predict the likely (and rightful) victor will be Bob Chiarelli. First, he’s done a considerable amount of work for the area. One only has to drive by the Queensway Carleton Hospital to see that new construction is ongoing and increasing access to health services in Ottawa’s west end. Not to mention all the transit improvements being made at Algonquin College. These are very visible examples of the work Bob Chiarelli’s getting done for our area. Secondly, Chiarelli’s opponent, Randall Denley, has a list of potential issues a mile long. Having read a few of his columns in the Ottawa Citizen, his views rarely seem to align with his Party. If he doesn’t agree with the way the PC party leadership is conducting business, why join their team? Instead Bob Chiarelli has the support, popularity and most importantly experience, to be an effective representative for our area. I predict Ottawa-West Nepean voters will agree.
    11 06 15 wyatt
    PC pick-up. With a less than 1,300 vote lead in the by-election, the Libs will need to really turn the tide to hang on to the seat. If the Tories keep a lead in the polls, or even dip to a statistical tide, this will be a gain for them.
    11 03 29 Pat
    Bob will have a tough time this fall if the PC's nominate Brent Colbert. I have received mail, phone calls and emails and had the chance to talk with him when he had a booth at Carlingwood shopping center- this guy knows how to campaign and I like how he seems to be very knowledgeable on a wide number of issues.
    His main opponent is Beth Graham who nobody seemed to know who she was last year and was invisible in the media except for a terrible performance on CFRA. Her only claim seems to be that she came close last year but look at the numbers.
    Mike Patton got almost 15,000 votes against Watson in a campaign that the provincial PC’s were never going to win
    Last year, months before Dalton hit us with the HST and higher hydro rates Beth got almost 4,000 fewer votes if not a disaster, a lost opportunity.
    The only reason she came ‘close’ was that Bob was so unpopular that he lost almost 11,500 from the total posted by Watson in 2007.
    If she had been as popular as Mike Patton was in 2007 she would have won that seat.
    Lisa McLeod promoted Beth at every opportunity and even stepped in to take media calls after Beth proved she couldn’t answer a few simple questions abut the HST
    Her support seems to be almost exclusively Lisa’s riding association and people living in Nepean Carleton, who last time I checked weren’t able to vote in Ottawa West Nepean.
    So I'd say a PC pick up with Colbert and a Liberal hold with Graham
    11 02 19 Craig
    Too close to call. With all the stars lined up on him, Bob Chiarelli barely won against a weak PC candidate. This time, he has to share resources as the Liberals will be defending many ridings. It is certainly no slam dunk for the PC's either even if they are headed for government. A stronger candidate could put them over the top, but the Liberals might just hang on here as they have a very strong Minister and popular former Mayor of Ottawa.

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