Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

St. Paul's

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:20:30

Constituency Profile


Hoskins, Eric

Hynes, David

Kittredge, John

McGirr, Christine

Pinto, Keith

Rita, Mike

Vallance, David

Van Veldhuysen, Judith

Hon Eric Hoskins


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 09 24 jeff316
    Weird. St Paul's isn't the type of riding where people wear their political allegiance on their sleeves or on the lawns. Yet the NDP is out-signing everyone in the west/south end of the riding, which it has never done before, not even in May's federal election. This seems to have brought out the local Liberals and Hoskins' campaign is starting the sputter to life over the past few days. It's not in doubt, but it's interesting to watch.
    11 09 20 Josh
    Hoskins will (unfortunately) be back, but I think it will be similar to the results federally. His margin of victory will drop significantly, but the ?change? vote will split between the PC's and NDP.
    11 09 15 MH
    At the provincial level this election is still hard to call. Either the PCs or the Liberals could take the largest block of seats. Even if the Tories end up as the largest party, however, St. Paul's should stay Liberal. Carolyn Bennett withstood the drift towards the CPC and NDP in the federal election, and Dr. Hoskins attracts the same kind of support as Dr. Bennett does.
    11 09 11 jeff316
    Agreed with RL. St Paul's is one of Ontario's oddest ridings. Increasing income disparity is slowly changing it's solidly Liberal leanings. It can be pretty much broken down into three sections - 1) everything south & west of Winona/VaughanRd/Bathurst/Davenport, which is more Davenport-y in nature, former Liberal stronghold showing signs of NDP-ness; 2) Moore Park/Davisville + Cedarvale + Deer Park, where upper-upper-upper-middle class voters still generally vote Liberal but are slowly looking at the Conservatives, and 3) Forest Hill proper, largely Conservative but with a enough of a bed of Liberal voters that the Liberals win St. Paul's every single time, with no real competition.
    But as the least affluent areas vote NDP in greater numbers, and as Forest Hill slowly transforms to even greater exclusivity and a different type of wealth, the Conservatives creep slightly up and up. Look out in the next two or three elections - the Conservatives could start seriously competing, if St Paul's doesn't get split up amongst Davenport, Toronto Centre and Eglinton-Lawrence.
    11 09 08 RL
    I have grown up and lived in this riding for 35+ years. It is one of the oddest. With Forrest Hill and the Casaloma area with such different views politically. There are more NDPers moving into the neighbourhood. But if it was ever going to be a fight, it would be PC v Libs. At this stage the Liberals have it in the bag
    11 09 09 A.S.
    Far from ‘not ever winnable’, the seat *was* Tory-winnable prior to Y2K.  And even if she was high-profile, Sue-Ann Levy *wasn’t* a great candidate, at least for this kind of riding--it’s Globe country, not Sun country.  The Toryism around these parts leans McMurtry/Bassett, not Levy.  And that particular demographic strain has been comfortable in its current high-profile Grit shoes--esp. as long as the PCs hang their shingles atop the dubious types like Levy.
    11 08 27 R.O.
    This is likely the safest liberal seat in Toronto at the moment , the pc's for some reason though they had a chance to win it during the by-election when Sue Ann Levy ran . she was a great candidate for them but riding was not ever winnable for the party . some ridings in Toronto could easily switch parties this year but they will not likely include this riding.
    11 05 04 Andrew S
    Governing party won handily in a recently by-election (by-elections favour non-governing parties more than general elections). Very strong indication the riding will go the same way in the general election. One of the few ridings that stayed Liberal federally. What else is there to say?
    11 02 24 Craig
    Any riding that rejected Rob Ford in the 2010 municipal elections should not be on the PC target list, despite what might be said internally. Like Toronto Centre, this is a fairly affluent (hence not prime for the NDP) but VERY socially progressive riding that should easily stay Liberal. Eric Hoskins has also been very popular in this riding as well. Should be one of the top 5 Liberal results with the PC vote dropping and NDP vote stable.
    11 02 16 MF
    Eric Hoskins is the perfect fit for this affluent, educated, socially liberal riding. St. Paul's is now one of the safest ridings for the Liberals. If the Ontario Liberals were to go the way of the Manitoba Liberals, this would be one of their holdouts, a la River Heights.
    11 02 12 MK
    No chance of unseating Eric Hoskins; even with enormous support and resources Sue-Ann Levy mustered only 30% of the vote. Lib hold.

    Navigate to Ontario 2011 Home | Regional Index | Submission

    Ontario Provincial Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster