Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:35:50

Constituency Profile


Bailey, Bob

Barry, Stephanie

Bruziewicz, Andy

Falby, Andrew

Vermette, Jason

White, Brian

Robert Bailey


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 JustaFarmer
    Veteran City of Sarnia will be runaway winner. He won more elections than the rest of candidates combined. Best name recognition, crossing all party lines, should have no problem scoring another victory.
    11 10 04 Woman of Spirit
    What I hear from friends all around is that many of you will face a shock on the election date. Virtually everyone in my circles will vote for the independent candidate, veteran City Councillor Andy Bruziewicz. He has won six consecutive elections for Sarnia City Council, and before that he was elected for Sarnia Hydro Commission.Brian White tried for City Council and did not come even close. He tried for federal seat and lost to Conservative lady by 12,000 votes. He was never elected to anything, and I see no reason why this should change. Bailey won the last provincial election based on unpopularuty of DiCocco, does benefit from old conservative network, but is still pretty green in public service. Barry, Vermette, Falby are like White, have no political experience whatsoever. Falby and White have just a trail of unsuccessful political attempts. Bruziewicz, on the other hand has been winning time after time. He seems to enjoy the role of underdog, beating the oddds, and making history.
    Look at the current Sarnia Observer poll (www.theobserver.ca). Some 40% state their preference for ‘other’ party. The same poll a month ago, before Bruziewicz entered the race had ‘other’ at 4%. Now other is leading the race. That should tell you something.
    11 10 03 watcher
    Polling shows NDP win Horwath stopped in and the Liberal parachute candidate is not a factor. The independent is giving the angry Liberals a place to hide and will in the end help the NDP he is trying to punish. The more voters see of the conservative the less they like him. Big night coming for NDP in Sarnia.
    11 10 02 A.S.
    Perhaps it was more of a ‘anti-Di Cocco’ thing; but still, the astronomical '07 result suggests that this, together with Oshawa, is the NDP's most likely/most tempting steal from the Tories--even though their own real recent-time electable history in the seat was in 1990 (and maybe a touch of '95 incumbent-bump); heck, remember that Sarnia under Andy Brandt stayed PC in *1987*. While the current S-L Conservative forces have been going like gangbusters ever since upsetting Roger Gallaway federally in '06, Bailey still seems a bit accidental as far as MPPs go, and vulnerable in a Hudak-downish/Horwath-up scenario--but the glitch in the NDP camp: civil war. (Their '08 federal candidate's running as an independent.)
    11 07 24 Kevin
    The NDP candidate, Brian White, has been steadily increasing his profile from the most recent municipal and federal elections. He has an opportunity to win the vote in Sarnia where the bulk of the population is in the riding. Bob Bailey has the advantage of being the incumbent and the demographics in this riding favour the PC brand. The Liberals have no shot with the closing of the jail.
    11 07 19 R.O.
    Well Bob Bailey isn't one of the more high profile ontario pc mpp's i don't see him having much difficulty holding this riding this election , its more likely the pc's gain seats in south western ontario than lose seats this year. this riding could eventually flip ndp or return to the liberals but not this year if Hudak remains ahead in the polls. well this was a surprising pick up in 2007 for the pc's its not unusal for this area to be represented by a conservative provincially or federally its not a left of centre area like windsor is.
    11 03 31 Paul
    With the Sarnia jail closing in Sarnia thanks to the budget the liberals will be lucky to get 10% will be a race between tories and NDP
    11 03 20 campaigner
    First off Bailey in the cabnit is laughable. He is a bafoon and unliked accoss all party lines including his own. This will be a dog fight the liberals are no where and is has been reported that the NDP have had the leader in several times meeting with potential star candidates.
    11 03 09 MF
    A surprise PC pickup last time...somehow I think it had little to do with John Tory's leadership. So the party going against the trend and swinging back to the Liberals is certainly not impossible. That being said, I'm pretty confident the Conservatives will hang onto this, as they are on the upswing. More interesting is the race for second. Equally surprising was the surge in the NDP vote between '03 and '07 - from 16% to 27%. They could certainly surpass the Liberals here this time. This is definitely in the ‘future potential’ category for the Dippers.
    11 03 07 Craig
    In one of the most surprising upsets in 2007, Bob Bailey shocked Caroline Di Cocco who was expected to win another term, perhaps due to the growth in the NDP vote undercutting her. As a result, I can't see it flipping back now with the PC's higher in the polls and Bailey having a term of experience, he will likely be in cabinet if the PC's form government.
    11 02 02
    A surprise victory last time might lead to an equally surprising defeat this time for the PC's, this was strongly Liberal before last time.

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