Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Sault Ste. Marie

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:23:00

Constituency Profile


Hunt, Matthew

Macmichael, Luke

Orazietti, David

Ross, Celia

Turner, Jib

David Orazietti


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 09 27 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    One of two seats that will stay Liberal on Oct 6 (the other being Sudbury). This riding always seems to buck the trends (maybe they're just ahead of everyone else and vote what people will be voting next election?) and despite Liberal sad state of affairs in the north, they should keep this one.
    11 09 22 A.S.
    Largely on grounds of Orazietti being the only NDP incumbent-killer of 2003, there was lots of talk of this being a NDP takeback supertarget in '07...instead, Orazietti actually *increased* his lead as a whole slew of supposedly less competitive Northern Liberal seats went marginal and ultra-marginal. If the Liberals weren't so in such generic trouble in the North, I'd give this to Orazietti once again on ?Independent Republic Of Soolandia? grounds, even if the federal results now indicate he may be challenged on *both* flanks...or, perhaps, saved by their mutual cancellation.
    11 09 18 Pete B.
    Let me turn my attention to predicting results in the North. In general NDP should finish as the dominant party in this region. The Northland/Allied Diesel contract and the Norhern debate are hurting the government severely here. Liberals will have a hard time holding on to more than 1 or 2 seats.
    This is one of the very few ridings that the Liberals will hold in the North. They will lose votes but the 60% hurdle is too high to overcome. Besides, the North can't afford not to have representation in a (still) potential Liberal government.
    11 09 08 R.O.
    I’d say too close to call , suspect the liberal vote is going to go way down here its simply not realistic for David Orazetti to get anywhere near 60% this year as liberal numbers province wide way down. the ndp pose a big challenge for the liberals as they have a strong base in the riding and held it provincially and federally before and could split the left of centre vote. The Ontario pc’s don’t have much of a history in the riding but it did go conservative federally so they are likely to at least increase there vote. but its tough to say how new candidate Jib Turner will do. the problem for the liberals is that Sault Ste Marie at its core is a swing riding and not ever exclusively loyal to one party it can flip parties if the conditions are right.
    11 05 26 jeff316
    The NDP names a surprisingly strong provincial candidate just as they lose the riding federally to the Conservatives. Who would have forseen these type of events even then years ago? Celia Ross is definitely no slouch but a resurgent PC vote, a strong core of Liberal voters and an 11 000 vote gap is a lot to overcome.
    11 05 10 O No
    Orazietti probably still has the edge here, but this is sliding toward the ‘too close to call’ category. The NDP just nominated Celia Ross, former president of Algoma University, and I believe it will become clear over the weeks and months to come that she is not a lightweight contender. Unless the Tories nominate a complete non-entity, the local mix of candidates and the general malaise surrounding the Liberals provincially should turn this into an interesting race.
    11 03 14 binriso
    Ill say this is too close to call, the PCs will likely increase their votes to around 20 percent, so above 35% for the NDP will win it and that represents a gain of only about 10 points, taking into account that 5-10 percent will vote Green/Independent/another party other than the main four. It also helps a little that the NDP hold this one federally.
    11 03 03 MF
    David Orazietti won a stunning victory in 2007, but I can still see a real race emerging here. First of all, the NDP does have a history here and they do hold the riding federally. Second, the Conservative vote is almost certainly going to increase here. Under the patrician John Tory, who had difficulty appealing to working class and Catholic voters, the Conservatives were in single digits. In contrast the federal Conservatives pulled a stunning 38% of the vote last time. Tim Hudak's populist ‘Common Sense’ conservatism should fly much better in these parts than Tory did - doubling or even tripling their vote isn't out of the realm of possibility - which will be at the expense of the Liberals. In the end, it won't be that easy to dislodge Orazietti - but I can see the NDP pulling an upset, with a little help from the Tories.

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