Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15

Constituency Profile


Kenwell, Donna

Matthews, David

Schreiner, Mike

Wilson, Jim

Jim Wilson


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 09 21 A.S.
    Mike Schreiner just makes things easier for Jim Wilson, typically among the highest-polling (and in 1999, *the* highest-polling) Tories--indeed, the way things are going for the provincial Greens, I wouldn't be surprised if Schreiner underpolled Peter Ellis's 2007 result.
    11 09 16 A
    The PC's and the Greens are going to fight it out. While Wilson has lots of support his party is not as popular in the area as it once was. With no other viable opposition the Green Leader could take this one if he focuses on the riding and not the election.
    11 09 01 Steven
    As the former Liberal candidate in 2007, I think this election will be between the PC's and the Green's. With less than a week to go before the writ is dropped we've yet to see or hear who the Liberal candidate is. Mike, the Green Party leader is a great public speaker, and so is Jim Wilson. The difference is that the Green Party platform focuses on Rural Ontario, and if the Greens are to win any seats it will be from Rural Ontario. Wilson will tow the party line which is to attack the Liberals, but if the Liberals don't have a candidate then Wilson won't have anybody to attack. It's going to be a very interesting race on S-G.
    11 08 30 AD
    Easy PC win. It is possibly a real challenge with the Green Party leader but turnout would have to be high in this district. Otherwise it's almost a sure win for Wilson
    11 07 31 R.O.
    An interesting challenge from the green party provincial leader but when combined with Jim Wilson's long record as mpp for the riding and conservative leanings it seems more likely that it stay with Ontario pc's than go green this year. the real question is if the greens can beat the liberals for second here i'd say that might be do able this fall .
    11 04 01 RJ Fischer
    This will be a two way race between Green Leader Mike Shreiner and Conservative Jim Wilson. The Greens have a strong support in the area and the Green leader is an impressive Candidate, a good debater and very persuasive. I put down Green as my prediction, but its going to be a real fight with the central and north ends of the riding going to Shreiner and the south going to Wilson
    11 02 21 local student
    While I do expect the PC's to pull a win here, I do believe that the Greens will pull an impressive campaign in this riding. Having followed Schreiner's performance in the HKLB by-election, he performed impressively for a campaign that was dominated by the Liberals & John Tory. He rallied the support of many respected local businesses, and community people, and played a unique 'rural-green' card that was extremely supportive of the local agricultural businesses. Schreiner is a good campaigner, good debater, and easily-likeable fellow...can he win in this riding? I'm not too sure, but he does still have more than half a year to sway the voters of Simcoe-Grey.
    11 02 11 binriso
    PC's win pretty easily though the Green leader should come in 2nd here, but about 30 points back.

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