Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-07 10:29:22

Constituency Profile


Bartolucci, Rick

Labelle, Gerry

Loewenberg, Paul

Marketos, Carita Murphy

Popescu, J. David

Rogerson, Pat

Hon Rick Bartolucci


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 01 ACF
    An Ontario Federation of Labour press release from September 30, 2011, has the NDP in the lead in this riding. The results for Sudbury are as follows: NDP 38%, LIB 37%, CON 19%, GRN 4%. With the NDP on the upswing in the final week of the campaign, I don't view this as a safe Liberal seat. The NDP are poised to win this riding.
    11 09 27 jeff316
    Bartolucci is a well-respected MP amongst all parties and in Sudbury proper. No one dislikes him, and he gives no one a reason to. He’s not too new to be unknown, and not too old to have made too many enemies. Loewenberg is an interesting candidate, but he'd be better suited to the federal scene (and come to think of it Thibeault would likely be better as a provincial rep.) Save some crazy last-minute NDP surge, or a massive number of Liberal-to-PC vote switching, he’ll carry Subury, albeit with a reduced plurality. Bubbles will be fine.
    11 09 27 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    One of two seats that will stay Liberal on Oct 6 (the other being Sault Ste Marie). A popular incumbent with a large margin of victory to be beat. It has happened before in Federal elections but we think personal popularity will overcome the sad state the Liberals find themselves in the north. Watch this riding in the subsequent election where the NDP will be eyeing it longingly.
    11 09 26 Km1
    Rick Bartolucci is a well known and popular incumbent who will be very tough to beat. All of North might go other way but this riding will stay Liberal because of his popularity.
    11 09 26 Double J
    Sudbury is more of a Rick Bartolucci riding than a Liberal riding. That's why I don't see the NDP picking up this seat. Bartolucci has by far the best campaign team in Sudbury and will get his vote out on election day.
    This is one of the few northern seats that will stay Liberal.
    11 09 23 Gpeter
    I have a hard time believing the NDP will make up 30%, even with the Federal shift at MP. Horwath is not as popular as Jack Layton. That is a huuuuge gap.
    True OLP fortunes have sagged somewhat, but Bartolucci has always had strong personal popularity, well above the party.
    I predict a reduced margin of victory but a victory nonetheless.
    The only question is how long it takes to declare Bartolucci's victory on Election night; if I recall he was first declared elected in 2007.
    11 09 21 AD
    NDP stand to dominate in the North. But this riding? I think it could be close but doubt the NDP can close that big a gap against an incumbant. I predict LPO hold.
    11 09 20 dave
    Barto has been fairly good as an MPP but as part of the McGuinty Gubmint - he's goota go. I would have preffered the PC to be honest but their standard bearer here has put people off with an inept campaign and debate performance. The NDP candidate presents well and the since the federal riding went orange this year, the provincial one likely will as well. Barto has likely done his best but McGuinty has done jack for Sudbury. Highway 69 has STILL not been 4 laned completely through to Perry Sound even after McGuinty promised it would be done back in 2003. Anorher broken promise from McGuinty. And Barto's going to pay the price.
    11 09 19 A.S.
    Bartolucci *could* lose; but, ?third place beckons? is going a little too far. If he weren't running again, *then* ?third place beckons? is a possibility (cf. Essex and maybe a few others like it). But it'd take a Liberal catastrophe a la the ONDP '95 (or the fed NDP and PC '93) to drive Bartolucci into third place. But, again; he *could* lose...
    11 09 18 Pete B.
    Let me turn my attention to predicting results in the North. In general NDP should finish as the dominant party in this region. The Northland/Allied Diesel contract and the Norhern debate are hurting the government severely here. Liberals will have a hard time holding on to more than 1 or 2 seats.
    This is one of the very few ridings that the Liberals will hold in the North. They will lose votes but the 57% hurdle is too high to overcome. Besides, the North can't afford not to have representation in a (still) potential Liberal government.
    11 09 17 Edmund O'Connor
    To those predicting a Liberal win, I would point out this: Glenn Thibeault has pulled out *two* wins here since 2007 ? the first he won with a decent margin, the second he ran away with it. His team has largely transferred to Loewenberg's campaign, and with the Liberals battling bubonic plague in the unpopularity stakes in Northern Ontario, the forecast is grim for Bartolucci. Third place beckons.
    11 09 15 John K.
    This seems to be the one Northern Ontario riding that people have a problem with predicting a Liberal loss, in this case, for an NDP win. Can we just go back to the 2008 Canadian Federal Election for a minute. This same riding was the one Northern Ontario riding that people thought would stay Liberal, despite an NDP sweep in Northern Ontario. Diane Marleau was a long-time, and well-liked, Liberal member, much like Bartolucci. If it happened before, it will happen again. It also doesn't help that McGuinty declined to appear in a Northern Ontario Debate, released his Northern Ontario plan in North Toronto, and lost thousands of jobs in the region (Go Train refurbs, Timmins Xstrata, etc).
    11 09 08 R.O.
    This one should be too close to call . the ndp clearly have a much stronger presence in Sudbury than they had in 2007 , back then an ndp victory was unthinkable but  since then they have won the same city twice federally by fair margins. they most likely have a reasonable shot of winning the riding provincially as well . Rick Bartolucci is a big name in Sudbury but the liberal government no longer popular . things like the HST , hydro price increases and proposed tax credit for hiring immigrants over Ontario residents is going to go over like the plague in Northern Ontario. if the liberals don’t drop the policy i’d personaly be surprised if they win any seats up north this year. the Ontario pc’s also have a good candidate this year as Gerry Labelle ran federally in 08 and got 25% of the vote and he will almost certaintly increase the pc vote in this riding .
    11 09 08 -Al-
    As in the last election, Bartolucci is likely to take another hit to his vote totals. That said, he should still command a majority of the vote or close to it. The NDP fielded what so far appears to have been a stronger candidate in Dave Battaino last time out, and though he finished 2nd, Bartolucci won by more than 10,000 votes. However, if Loewenberg can capitalize on the city’s support for NDP MP Glenn Thibeault, he may be able to reduce Bartolucci’s margin of victory enough to create an open race between the Liberals and NDP in the next election.
    11 03 14 binriso
    This seems like the only safe riding for the Liberals in the North, but even then PC's and NDP gaining votes at their expense could shift it, after all it was a good 3-way race federally with the NDP winning and they will certainly have some help from their federal counterparts.
    11 03 03 MF
    While Rick Bartolucci won by a 2-1 margin last time, this is likely to be an interesting race to watch. The McGuinty government is far less popular than it was 4 years ago, and I think they are likely to take an especially big hit in the North. The NDP not only won this riding federally in the 2008 federal election, but the ONDP doubled its percentage of the vote in 2007 from 2003. The Conservatives under the patrician John Tory flopped among working class and Catholic voters and were reduced to single digits in Sudbury. They are likely to at least double their vote this time under the more populist Hudak, at the expense of the Liberals. I will still give the edge to the Liberals, but I can see the NDP pulling an upset in this second-tier target.

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