Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-07 10:29:22

Constituency Profile


Ahmed, Danish

Fogel, Guy

Grant, Tim

Marchese, Rosario

Ocran-Caesar, Araba

Thomson, Sarah

Ursomarzo, Silvio

Yen, Mike

Rosario Marchese


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 09 29 Jimmy
    I live in the riding in the Chinatown area and I haven't seen an appearance from either candidate though NDP and liberal canvassers have been around couple times.I contemplated voting for Thompson but it doesn't seem like the liberals are going for it with the same intensity as the previous federal campaign. Without that same effort this one stays with Marchese. Interestingly enough the pc candidate has set up his campaign office in Chinatown but pc signs are even a rarity here.
    11 09 27 jeff316
    There was an article in the Star in which the previous Liberal candidate Kate Holloway declared that with 900 signs, the Thompson campaign might be winning the sign war. That’s cute, because 900 signs in a election-sign-pollution riding like T-S is nothing. Maybe she was comparing their campaign to Tim Grant’s because whereas Christine Innes at least gave the appearance of giving Chow a run for her money (red and white in your face), for Thompson you have to go looking for signs and they’re hard to find. All you see is Marchese. Even if the Liberals get a majority, this one isn’t in doubt.
    11 09 24 w.f
    This is probably one of the closest ridings in the province. Both parties are praying that they win here because Yasir Naqvi is one of the most popular members of the liberal caucus and is the rising star of the liberal party. That is also why the NDP wants this bad. My prediction is if the liberals form a government no matter how big or small it is they will keep it. If the liberals lose than they lose Yasir Naqvi
    11 09 23
    Grant is running a strong campaign but I can't imagine Marchese won't be reelected. Thomson has had major problems with her campaign and I'd expect her vote totals to decrease from last election. Yen ran for city council last year so he has some visibility but doesn't have much else going for him in this PC-hostile riding. Final results order NDP, Liberal, Green, PC?
    11 09 14 Josh
    Thomson wasn't just a failed Mayoral candidate, she was a disaster. She's certainly not a ‘star’ candidate and the incumbent Marchese will easily hold the riding, especially with the NDP 8 or so points higher than 2007.
    11 09 10 A.S.
    50% plus was predicted for Marchese in 2007, too--except that the condo surge and the Green surge took him to barely over 40% instead. So I still wouldn't bet the absolute-majority house on him, even after Olivia's reaching that mark--lucky for Marchese, it's a FPTP system, and at this point he'd be more likely facing a three-way race for second (at least, if Mike Schreiner were allowed into the leader's debate).
    11 09 08 Marshall Howard Bader
    No brainer here this one is going back to Marchese.  He is a solid MPP in a solid NDP riding, federally, provincially, and municipally. Marchese will get over 50% on election night.
    11 07 13 GTA Blogger
    This SHOULD be a Green Party victory. Tim Grant is a strong Green candidate, and the riding is at least as green-leaning as any in the province.
    What worries me here is all the talk of a Conservative win in Ontario. That talk may sway progressives who would otherwise have happily voted Green into voting for the status quo (in this riding, clearly NDP/Marchese).
    However, I'm convinced voters will realize that in this riding, the Tories have no hope, so they are free to vote with their hearts. As someone else said, this is the riding to watch for a sleeper Green victory.
    11 07 07 w.f
    Rosario Marchese has been in for a while. That could either hurt him or work for him. Unlike Olivia Chow, Rosario isn't nearly as public, but Cristine Innes was more left leaning than Sarah Thomson, but Sarah Thomson is really popular amongst the UofT students. Also The Italian community could either vote for Rosario or stay liberal like in the Federal election. We either could be looking at another Nellie Pedro or Rosario will be beaten out.
    SUB-Date 11 07 06
    11 05 26 OgtheDim
    For all the talk of the condos increasing bodies in the riding, a quick look at Elections Canada data b notes the amount of registered voters federally went down by 1400 while the amount of people actually voting went up by 5000.
    Unfortunately for the Liberals, they are running Sarah Thomson who wasn't all that well received during the mayor race. She will not fair well in the debates. This should be an NDP hold.
    11 05 26 jeff316
    Last time around Kate Holloway was to be the Liberal dragon slayer and it never happened. The time before that Nellie Pedro was to rally the Portuguese community into voting out Marchese. This time there's a fringe mayoralty-candidate being promoted as the one who is going to give Marchese a run for his money in an election that will result in fewer Liberals being elected to Queen's Park. Sure... Lots of comments on this riding re: the impact of condos, both federally and provincially. Marchese has been pretty active on the condo file and he's made it his own. HIs advocacy of for condo owners/tenants makes him pretty visible and should put him easily above a Liberal challenge. Maybe the Greens will come in second?
    11 05 04 MF
    Might as well add this now before we hear about how the growth of condos is going to make Trinity-Spadina unwinnable for the NDP. Olivia Chow took 54% of the vote in this year's federal election - the highest vote for the NDP in the history of the riding, federally or provincially.
    11 04 21 Mike
    Hard to say so far out, but Tim Grant is running for the Green Party and has strong roots in the north of the riding but also connections in the south through energy efficiency efforts in the condos. Marchese is not the strongest MPP in the end. Sarah Thomson's parachuting is very suspicious. And the Conservatives - especially Tim Hudak's Conservatives - don't have much of a chance here. If you're looking for a sleeper Green victory, could be here.
    11 03 13 OgtheDim
    Sarah Thomson's candidacy if anything will hurt the Liberals here. She was appointed a candidate in the city election by the media and did not fare well. Marchese has a long history here and a big machine that will be motivated to get the Liberals out.
    11 03 03 MF
    Rosario Marchese has been around since 1990, and has won handily in every election since. There was however a bit of a ‘creative class’ shift away from the NDP in Trinity-Spadina (and other Old City of Toronto ridings) in the 2007 provincial election as well as the 2008 federal election - to the benefit of the Greens. The Liberal vote more or less stayed flat - despite a drop in the popular vote province-wide. This is likely due to growth in the lakefront condo belt - which has not been beneficial to the NDP. In response to these demographic changes, Marchese has quite smartly taken up the issues of condo dwellers and has labelled himself the ‘Condo Advocate’ at Queen's Park.
    The Liberals have nominated Sarah Thomson. It's hard to say whether it will translate into anything - demographics and name recognition may favor the Liberals, but the McGuinty government is also much less popular this time around. The 11% Green vote from last time is a bit of a wild card - will they stay there? And if the Green vote drops, will the main beneficiary be the NDP or the Liberals?
    In the end, it'll be an interesting one to watch - but I expect Marchese to prevail in the end.
    11 02 17 seasaw
    This riding's been NDP for a long time. The MPP here has been around for a long time. So, it should be an easy win for NDP.

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