Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:47

Constituency Profile


Donofrio, Paul

Fabrizio, Paolo

Frye, Brendan

Genco, Tony

Marino, Terry

Natale, David

Quatela, Savino

Sorbara, Greg

Greg Sorbara


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 02 R.O.
    looks like Greg Sorbara is going to hold on this year at least thats what forum poll said and what all indicators point to , don't really see Tony Genco picking up the riding but i wouldn't be surpised to see vaughan go conservative in future elections once liberal incumbent leaves just like federal riding did. the riding provincially had a pc mpp before Sorbara got elected and would never go ndp so if it ever does elect a non-liberal its going to be a tory.
    11 09 24 A.S.
    A little odd that Sorbara's even running again, considering that his retirement from cabinet portfolio shortly after the last election seemed to prefigure his (second) political retirement altogether--unless, perhaps, the federal Fantino-ization of Vaughan refueled the heck-or-high-water fire in his belly. Anyway, the issue of Sorbara dragging it out again *could* have made for an interesting race, and Genco certainly symbolizes the fact--but in practice, Genco versus Sorbara may be more of a limp noodle a la Mario Ferri versus Fantino, than an inverse version of Genco versus Fantino. Unless the PCs go into landslide mode, of course.
    11 09 07 Josh
    There’s no way the people of Vaughan will elect someone who is only running because of sour grapes. Even with Liberals in a tight race, Sorbara will return to Queen’s Park.
    11 08 18 Joe Issac
    There is no way that turncoat Tony Genco can win this riding. Traditional Liberals will campaign harder to make sure that Genco is defeated. Traditional Conservatives would not be excited that their candidate is an opportunist and not a true Tory.
    Besides popular MPP Greg Sorbara won this riding with over 60% of the support. The Tories managed to win a measly 18% in 2007. Then numbers just don't add up for the Tories.
    11 08 07 R.O.
    This is turning out to be a really interesting match up , less than a year ago Greg Sorbara was Tony Genco's biggest supporter during the by-election now he's trying to take his job as mpp for Vaughan. its such a shocking turn of events no one could of ever predicted it. the pc's definity do alot better than extremely weak 07 results its tough to say if they can take the riding from the liberals. its most definity going to be one of the more exciting provincial campaigns in Vaughan this year.
    11 07 28 Josh
    The PC's have nominated a bitter former Liberal in Tony Genco. Even with polls showing the Liberals are likely to go down, Vaughan will stay Liberal thanks to the incumbency factor.
    11 07 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    This riding went CPC Federally in a byelection (by a narrow margin) and then was won in the general election once the CPC were the incumbent party. Not the same story here. We said elsewhere that incumbents who get 60% of the vote do not get turfed in one election (unless it's in Quebec, but that's a different story). No, the vote goes down and then in the second or third election the incumbent would get turfed. To think Sorbara willlose his 43 point lead is just being foolish. Seriously, the Liberals are down in the polls but they will win SOME ridings. Let's be serious here.
    11 07 06 Joey
    Liberal Sorbara is passé.
    If the PC's nominate a strong community leader that will give Sorbara a run for his money .... we managed to paint this city Blue federally & some are hoping to do the same provincially.
    11 04 05 will1987
    Sorbara is entrenched here just like his former Federal counterpart Maurizio Bevilacqua. This riding is probably his for as long as he wants it to be. When he retires the PC will have more of a chance if the election of Fantino is any precedent.
    11 02 20 SB
    Grit veteran Greg Sorbara cannot be beaten. Sorbara is one of the primary architects for the Liberal wins of 2003 and 2007, and he will play a major role in the campaign again. Even if the Tories win a majority, Sorbara will probably win his riding comfortably. In 2007, Sorbara defeated the Tory candidate in a 62-19 margin. The NDP and Green are a non factor like most Toronto suburbs, but their vote share will most likely increase.

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