Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 00:05:54

Constituency Profile


Bales, Wendy

Bojczuk, Roman

Flavelle, Aird

Gibson, Simon

Halliday, Marcus B

Rai, Preet

Stahl, Don

Randy Hawes


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Randy Hawes*
    Lynn Perrin
    Bill Walsh


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    13 05 07 Laurence Putnam
    A long-shot at best for the NDP, with the recent shoring up of Liberal support this is not even in question.
    13 04 21 bza
    I wouldn't say this riding is exactly a slam dunk with the Liberals being so far behind in the polls.
    Most likely they will hold it, but with the massive collapse in support this easily could be a close election with less than a 5% difference separating the two parties. Even an outside chance of the NDP winning it according to some of the election predictions of pollsters.
    This riding is a little different than the other Abbotsford ridings since it includes part of Mission, an area with a bit more NDP support as well.
    13 03 27 GV
    I think this riding presents a very similar story to Abbotsford West. Unlike NO PARTISAN BS, I don't see how this seat is demonstrably safer for the government--both were won by the same percentage margin last time. And the opposition's candidate, a school trustee, is much better than the low-profile individual fielded against de Jong. Still, it strains credulity to imagine the Liberals losing here unless their polling numbers collapse significantly further.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    A much closer race than last time but the gap is too much to overcome unless the Liberals implode. If this goes NDP, we will need to send out search parties to find successful Liberals.

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