Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

Abbotsford South

Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 00:26:09

Constituency Profile


Finlay, Steve B

Jhaj, Lakhvinder

Plecas, Darryl

Smith, Patricia B

van Dongen, John

John van Dongen


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    John van Dongen*
    Bonnie Jasiver Rai
    Daniel Stephen Bryce
    Gurcharan Dhaliwal
    Tim Lee Felger


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    13 05 13 abby on looker
    as the advance poller says ?77% that it is up is true? but to say the liberals have a chance at winning is not accurate. ind van dongen has a better chance than plecus. the huge conversational nomination threw moe gill to plecus was huge blow to liberals, all the ones that are on line are most likely going to go to van dongen, as the split looks bigger and bigger each day it shows why NDP will steal this riding along with the province. jhaj has show her reasoning to pick her.with all around abbotsford south saying change is needed in this riding. NDP will win by a hair and librerals 3rd behind ind Van Dongen
    13 05 12 Advance Voting Analyst
    If the NDP were to have any hope of stealing this riding, they needed many Liberal and van Dongen supporters to sit this one out, and those remaining to split their votes pretty evenly. Similarly, for van Dongen to win, a lot of Liberals would have to stay home. Through Friday, this riding's participation in advance voting is up 77% over last election -- the largest such increase in the province. Clearly the voters of this riding are taking an interest. With no blue or green candidate, the winner will almost assuredly get upwards of 35% of the vote. With so many voters heading to the polls, it's hard to imagine anyone but the Liberals breaking that barrier.
    13 05 11 DougP
    As with Cariboo North, a high profile Independent candidate will only split the vote. JvD will run third, while stealing enough votes from his old party the Liberals to allow a New Democrat to run up the middle to victory. One can only imagine the consternation of voters here as they witness a spectacular example of the 'spoiler' effect: WTF?!
    13 05 05 abby south on looker
    As the last elections were far off. But as the NDP are now looking at a sweep in the province they have a strong chance, with a liberals candidate pleacus, and a strong ind van Dongen can push NDP candidate jhaj to win, she will not only sweep the south asian vote but can win the riding, as the elections get closer its harder to tell, but now with the debate jhaj has shown her knowledge, and show why NDP are the reason to pick not the liberals, or the current MLA with trust issues to party's. This will be close as the NDP will win but only by a little.
    13 04 13 bza
    This will be an interesting race to watch. Safe to leave it on the too close to call category until the final weeks of the election.
    Will all depend on how popular is Van Dongen is vs the party he used to run with is in a fairly weak position this election.
    Could set the NDP up for a win in Abbotsford South, but its too early to tell yet how this will all play out.
    13 03 27 GV
    I'm not at all confident about how this will play out. John van Dongen has indeed become something of a joke, but he has the public profile that his opponents lack. Meanwhile, Jhaj of the NDP appears to be doing quite a good job of getting the media's attention. Both these factors mitigate my natural tendency to call this riding Liberal. I think this may be one of the tightest on election night.
    13 03 12 Laurence Putnam
    I think van Dongen might have kept this as a Conservative OR as an independent, but his having left the Conservatives within months of leaving the Liberals just makes him look like someone who can't work with anybody. I believe he's created enough doubts about himself that he will be repudiated and lucky to get 20% of the vote. The NDP would be lucky to get 30-33% in this riding. That leaves the Liberal candidate, which is utterly logical in this typical Fraser Valley riding.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    Van Dongen's travels around the political spectrum will result in the inevitable final destination of defeat. He will retain enough local vote to allow the NDP to take this riding.

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