Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 00:27:44

Constituency Profile


Burns, Darwin Augustus Ivan

Clarke, Christine N.

Kramer, Ken

Shin, Jane

Harry Bloy


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Harry Bloy*
    Jaynie Clark
    Helen H. S. Chang


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    13 05 06 Matt
    I thought that this riding would easily fall to the NDP. Their poll numbers are softening and their candidate is mired in controversy. I now think TCTC
    13 05 07 Laurence Putnam
    Let me echo the sentiments of GV that Bloy was a remarkably bad MLA - but his picking the winning horse during the Liberal leadership did give me pause to consider that perhaps he was some kind of idiot savant. All the more so, he has the foresight to realize that it's time to step out of the way. So he must have known something about how to play the game. Nevertheless, after a completely unremarkable 12-year career, this riding is now gift-wrapped for the NDP.
    13 04 19 Stephen Walker
    Harry Bloy may have managed to get re-elected. A BC Liberal candidate with no history in Burnaby Lougheed has no chance of being elected. The BC NDP will win easily because of the vote splitting of the right. Harry Bloy would have had both the BC Conservative and BC Liberal vote.
    13 03 27 GV
    Harry Bloy is quite possibly the worst MLA in BC, so his retirement arguably comes as welcome news to his party. But I don't think the BCL have a strong prospect of winning with their new candidate (whoever that ends up being). The political environment is just too hostile for Liberal candidates in open seats. Expect an NDP sweep of Burnaby.
    13 03 14 bza
    My old stomping grounds looks like it will be finally free of Harry Bloy this time. Not sure if he is running again as there is no information, but considering the last two elections where he barely won, whether he runs or not, it looks like this time it will go NDP.
    The BC NDP candidate is also impressive and will do well in connecting to the Chinese and Korean communities in the riding.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    Unless the Liberals make a miracle comeback, this is one of those dominoes that will tip into the NDP column. A close race last time will be tight NDP win this time. If the Conservatives make any impact, the NDP will win going away but a close win seems more likely.
    13 03 07 NO PARTISAN BS
    A squeaker for the Liberals last time but all signs point to a NDP gain in this seat. Only a massive turnaround in the polls will change this and there is no sign of this happening.
    13 02 10 Jack Cox
    A Retiring Incumbent and the NDP being much further ahead in the polls, it's certain this seat will fall to them.

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