Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

Cariboo North

Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 08:33:04

Constituency Profile


Barnett, Duncan

Oakes, Coralee

Simpson, Bob

Bob Simpson


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Bob Simpson*
    Bruce Ernst
    Douglas Gook


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    13 05 11 DougP
    Sadly, BS run third but will steal enough votes from his old party, the NDP, to hand this riding to the Liberals. One can only imagine the consternation of voters here as they witness a spectacular example of the 'spoiler' effect: WTF?!
    13 05 03 Laurence Putnam
    I can't believe I'm predicting three Independents this go-around! (Huntington, Hadland and Simpson). Seems bizarre - and maybe I'm just trying to make election night more exciting for myself, but my reasoning is this:
    Neither party leader is popular in this area of the province - and with the election going against the Liberals overall and the NDP running a conservative, I think a reliable, speaks-from-the-heart two term incumbent like Bob Simpson couldn't have asked for a better election. It's gonna be close, but I think Bob can win this, partially because he is free of any party affiliation.
    13 05 03 Teddy Boragina
    I really don't think more eyes are on any single person's campaign than that of Bob Simpson.
    First off, let me make clear, the BC Liberal is going to be hard-pressed to win. There are a few reasons. Firstly, the party is not exactly the most popular due to it's stint in Government. Disgruntled right-wing BC Liberals in this riding have options that may not exist in other ridings. This will further depress the BCL vote. Secondly, Simpson will attract new voters; those who may not have bothered to vote otherwise, the mathematical result will be to further suppress the BCL percentage in the riding, even if their raw vote does not move. Lastly, BC NDPers are liable to support their sitting MLA.
    The end result of this is that while the BC Liberals might, maybe, peak out at 34% in this riding this election, the chances of a perfect split between the NDP and Simpson (allowing 34% to be a win) are slim. Realistically, with everyone expecting an NDP government, voters will opt for a government MLA.
    13 04 27 NO PARTISAN BS
    The inability of the Liberals to cut into the popular vote of the NDP is turning into a toss up between the NDP and Simpson. The NDP vote province wide seems to have a floor of 45% and that seems to eliminate the Liberals taking this seat in a split. Simpson will make it interesting but the provincial trends point to a narrow but clear NDP win.
    13 04 26 North_BC
    This will be a close race but Simpson should win. Provincial polling data, in particular Angus Reid, show strong independent support in the north. All three are strong candidates but Simpson's track record and the significant anti political party moood both in the Cariboo and across BC make this election optimal for third party candidates.
    13 04 23 Connaught
    I've driven from one end of the riding to the other along Hwy 97 three times in the last 10 days and am very impressed with Bob Simpson's signage. The NDP and BC Libs also have a plethora of signs, but Simpson looks to be well organized -- and tough to beat.
    13 04 06 B.O.
    I'm not sure why GV says the BC NDP should not have run a candidate here. The NDP obviously wants this riding back and the only way to do that is to run a candidate. The BC NDP would also know the risk of a vote split that elects a Liberal is very slight because the BC Liberals are not poised to get 46% in this riding again when they are much, much lower in the polls this time. I'd say the NDP is likely to win it with a Simpson win only a remote possibility.
    13 03 30 A.J.
    Cariboo North is way too close to call
    While the current MLA has a high profile, he is no shoo-in
    The liberal candidate is a very popular former city councillor with lots of money to spend in the riding
    The NDP candidate, while not well known in the north of the riding, is very popular in the south. He is from a ranching background and may challenge traditional voting patterns.
    The former mayor is campaigning hard for Barnett in the city of Quesnel.
    13 03 26 GV
    I think the NDP made a poor decision in insisting on going after Bob Simpson. Like the federal Conservatives did with Andre Arthur, they should have bowed out of the contest to prevent the election of a Liberal. And if the Liberal candidate is indeed well-known, this riding could become the party's only pickup of the night.
    But my intuition tells me that Simpson will carry the day without too much hassle. This crankily contrarian constituency is perfectly designed to elect Independents! Further, I doubt there is sufficient ?die-hard? NDP support in this riding for voters to choose the party flagbearer over their long-time sitting member.
    13 03 18 Bernard
    Bob Simpson is popular locally. The NDP candidate is a former federal Conservative with little local presence or campaign team. The Liberal candidate is not as strong as the one they ran and lost with last time
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    Any one calling this race must have a crystal ball or a time machine. Far too many wild cards and personalities at this time. It will all depend on the campaign and chance.
    13 03 04 DFinch
    Bob Simpson should retain this, as regardless of the personal appeal of any BC Liberal candidate, some of their voters will now flow to Simpson, along with many NDP voters. Though it is a tough challenge for an independent candidate, Simpson has a good reputation and makes his voice known in the legislature. I expect he'll take it, garnering between 40-50% of the overall vote.
    13 02 18 Laurence Putnam
    A great race to watch! Liberals have nominated an energetic former Quesnel councillor with the hopes of capitalizing on a split between the NDP's new candidate, and Independent incumbent Bob Simpson, formerly of the NDP with a considerable fan base of his own. Simpson was outspent 2:1 in 2005 and 3:1 in 2009. There will certainly be a split vote on the left.
    And maybe the right? Don't know who the Conservatives are running, but note that Reform BC earned almost 20% of the vote here in 1996.
    This has all the makings of a super race - potentially 4 ways. Could be a win with 30%. I'll be saving this call right until the end.

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