Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 00:18:26

Constituency Profile


Eros, Chad Elton

Halliday, Michael Raymond B

MacAhonic, Patti

Martin, John

Reimer, Kim

John Les


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    John Les*
    Mason Goulden
    Benjamin Besler
    Fraea Bolding


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    13 05 07 Laurence Putnam
    You know - part of me would actually like to see Martin get skunked after his turncoat move. But I think he will probably hold this riding for the Liberals, even if only barely. Numbers last time were, I think unusually low because people were getting fed up with John Les and the rumours swirling around his supposedly shady land dealings as Chilliwack Mayor. This is a Fraser Valley riding at heart, and one with a military heritage - not really prime NDP territory. Although I will certainly admit that it's become questionable.
    13 04 05 bza
    With the strong polling of the NDP presently and with some history of support in the riding this race will also likely elect an NDP MLA.
    13 03 27 GV
    It's hard to quarrel with the argument that this riding will likely tilt in the NDP's direction. But I'm not quite willing to call it for them at this point--too many variables remain undefined for me.
    Admittedly, this is a gut reaction on my part. It's one thing to see a partly rural riding in the Fraser Valley go NDP. It's really quite another to see a wholly suburban riding vote that way. But I admit that it seems to be the more likely outcome.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    Unless the Liberals make a miracle comeback, this is one of those dominoes that will tip into the NDP column. Not a close race last time but this will be tight NDP win this time.

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