Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 00:18:34

Constituency Profile


Henshall, Michael

McKinnon, Ryan Ashley

O'Mahony, Gwen

Throness, Laurie

Gwen O'Mahony


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Barry Penner*
    Gwen O'Mahony
    Hans Mulder
    Guy Durnin
    Dorothy-Jean O'Donnell


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    13 05 07 Laurence Putnam
    I'm with GV and will in fact cast my prediction for the Liberals. John Martin got 25% here for the Conservatives in the by-election and is now running as a Liberal. Conservatives will still get a good turnout, but it won't be anywhere near that good. Every vote they lose goes back to Thorness, plus turn-out will be up compared to the by-election and I tend to think that will hurt the NDP here.
    Remember at the time of the by-election, BC Liberal support was in the low to mid 20's and on e-day, Thorness still got 32% here. Liberal fortunes have improved, provincewide. If he can outpoll the provincewide numbers by 7-10% again, he will win.
    This and Delta North are probably the only two shots the Liberals have for pick-ups and I think in all likelihood this is the only one, really.
    13 03 27 GV
    I think this riding has been called prematurely. Though I'm inclined to favour an NDP hold here, the question remains quite unsettled. In a two-party system, winning with 41% of the vote doesn't insulate you from future electoral vulnerability. Such is the case for Gwen O'Mahony.
    At bottom, my reluctance to call this riding for the incumbent rests on my own failure to predict last year's by-election with full accuracy. I underestimated the support Throness would receive and mistakenly thought he would finish third. In light of that blunder, I'm leery towards a definitive call against him this time. But I do think he'll most likely lose.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    Not close last time, and the gap will be larger this time. This one stays firmly in the NDP column.
    13 03 07 NO PARTISAN BS
    It is hard to see any opportunity for Liberals to take away any riding won by the NDP,even in a by-election. NDP up, Libs way down.. this is another one in the bag for the NDP.

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