Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

Comox Valley

Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 00:31:40

Constituency Profile


Aikman, Chris

Dycke, Kassandra

Hoffmann, Diane

McRae, Don

Don McRae


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Don McRae
    Leslie McNabb
    Hazel Lennox
    Paula Berard
    Barbara Biley


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    13 05 13 Advance Voting Analyst
    Welcome to Vancouver Island's very own bellwether -- even if the island as a whole is not much of a bellwether. This riding belongs in the NDP column, but just barely. Advance voting turnout was typically strong but not election-over-election increases weren't as impressive as down island. The NDP need only five points to flip Comox Valley. They will get them, but probably not many more, as the area's changing demographics will negate some NDP gains.
    13 05 13 AR
    The Liberals have rebounded in the polls somewhat. That guarantees them at least one seat on the Island. This remains the likeliest hold.
    13 04 29 Comoxboxman
    This riding seems to go back and forth between the left and right for a few elections now. More and more voters in this riding are seniors, transplanted from Alberta who historically have voted with the right wanting to protect their pensions and savings. The incumbent has been very wise to court the seniors. However, in doing so he has choosen to ignore local issues. He has done little to address problems with the local schools budget shortfall and he misread the significant local opposition to the HST as the majority of voters opposed it in the referendum while supported by him. It will be close but he will lose his seat this time around.
    13 04 28 BCL
    Having a high profile cabinet minister will help the Liberals retain the Comox Valley. The numbers are looking up and the amount of support door to door is overwhelming.
    13 04 17 Laurence Putnam
    The ?free-enterprise? base in this riding has become very real. Eclipsing even the long-time base of traditionally thought of ?military votes?, the right in this riding has ever-increasing numbers of retirees including numbers of right-leaning Albertans. I think this riding will get caught up in the demand for change this time, but will be one of the first to revert back to the free enterprise side in 2017.
    13 03 24 bza
    Considering that the NDP narrowly lost this riding in 2009, with the NDP polling considerably higher, Comox Valley looks likely to go NDP this time around.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    Another Liberal domino falls here. The NDP will sweep the Island and the only issues to be decided are the margin of victory and how much the Green vote will grow.
    13 02 18 P Kelly
    This and every seat on the Island should be an NDP sweep. In 2009, the NDP took the island with a 50% to 38% romp, taking 11 of 15 seats. The NDP polls at least 15-20pts higher now on the Island, and should take the remaining seats of Comox, Parksville/Qualicum, Oak Bay, and North Saanich.

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