| ||13 05 13
||Advance Voting Analyst|
|In the weeks since anyone else commented on Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, it has become very easy to envision the scenario in which the Liberals hold this riding. The NDP have to close a 21-point gap to win; there is much lower-hanging fruit that the NDP will not win either. The Conservatives are no more a factor in this riding than are the Greens and are unlikely to eat into that gap in any substantial way. If this were a close contest, advance voting numbers would have been much higher.|
| ||13 04 27
||NO PARTISAN BS|
|It is hard to envision a scenario where the Liberals hold this riding. Even if the incumbent runs ahead of the party, he will still end up under 40% as the Conservatives are taking enough to make this an NDP take away.|
| ||13 04 23
|This one is tough. Going on the 2009 results, you can see that Horne outpolled his own Liberal party by approximately 10 points while the New Democratic opponent fell short of their party's polling by about 7 points. |
Using that as a formula for this riding, based on current polling that would give Horne about 40-42% of the vote today...and more or less the same for the NDP candidate.
Add to the mix that the NDP has a higher profile candidate this go-around, and that the Conservatives are running a candidate too. If the numbers are as tight as the initial rough calculation suggests they could be, even 500 votes for the Conservatives could spell doom for Horne.
Given the overall trend of this election, and given the local geography (every seat bordering on this one is almost a certain NDP lock) I'm going to place my bet with the winds of change and very cautiously give this one to the NDP...although it is certainly no guarantee.
| ||13 04 05
|I think it will be safe to leave this one in the too close to call category until probably the final week of the election.|
While the Liberals won this seat by a large margin this time, their massive collapse of support puts this seat into play.
Either party has an equal shot of winning this seat and I think it will be won or lost with a less than 5% margin of victory. Will have to see how the campaign unfolds and what the ground game is like.
| ||13 03 27
|My gut tells me the NDP couldn't win here with a candidate lacking in political experience. Daniel Igali's 2005 Liberal bid in Surrey proved that wrestlers aren't really guaranteed success in the field, and the demographics of the riding--very new, well-to-do suburbia--aren't tailor-made for the party. But Mike Farnworth, who represented much of this area in the 90's, has sufficient gold dust to sprinkle on candidates in all his neighbouring ridings. That intangible factor convinces me that there's a strong chance of a pickup for the opposition party here.|
| ||13 03 16
|Too close to call/leaning Liberal. Even with a strong candidate and strong poll numbers, it will be difficult for the NDP to close a 20-point gap in this wealthy, conservative riding. |
| ||13 03 08
||NO PARTISAN BS|
|Unless the Liberals make a miracle comeback, this is one of those dominoes that will tip into the NDP column. A strong local candidate and strong provincial polling point towards an NDP gain here.|
| ||13 03 04
|It'll be a nail bitter, but with the wise selection of Chris Wilson as their candidate the NDP will take it. Wilson is a high-profile candidate, a long-time community volunteer, former Olympian and two-time World Champion Wrestler. He was backed by Mike Farnworth in a hotly contested nomination. Now Farnworth is turning his attention to getting Wilson elected and completing the NDP sweep of the Tri-Cities. The low-profile 1 term Liberal backbencher here doesn't have enough juice to withstand it.|
| ||13 03 01
||The People's Elbow|
|If the NDP nominates Chris Wilson this will actually be a race between the NDP and the Liberals.|
If the NDP nominates Joe Keithley (Burnaby Resident of DOA fame) then you can chalk this one up as a Liberal win. The NDP may write this riding off as a no-hoper, and nominate Keithley on the belief that he can fundraise a lot of money. That would be a mistake. Unsuitable candidates in no-win ridings can drag down good candidates in competitive ridings nearby.