Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

Kootenay East

Prediction Changed
2013-05-14 23:49:44

Constituency Profile


Bennett, Bill

Blissett, Norma

Bill Bennett


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Bill Bennett*
    Troy Sebastian
    Wilf Hanni
    Jennifer Tsuida


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    13 05 06 Observer For a While
    Contrary to popular belief, in the 2009 election, the majority of the ?heavily unionized? Elk valley supported Bennett. His personal popularity in the riding minimizes his political affiliation and his blunt approach plays well. While the NDP candidate is very personable, she lacks a sound understanding of the issues in the riding, and appears unable to articulate her party's position with any depth.
    13 05 03 Laurence Putnam
    I'm going to call it for Bennett. Might be crazy, but he's definitely got his following here and there's no Conservative to siphon votes - Tories got 10% here last time - with Bennett the free enterprise coalition tops 60%. Liberal polling is holding, possibly even improving - their Southern Interior numbers are quite good - most of those are going to be Okanagan Valley numbers, admittedly but if there's support for the Liberals anywhere outside of there, this would be it.
    13 05 03 ActiveObserver
    Keep in mind that this website predicted that the New Democrats would win Kootenay East in the last election, and they didn't. While there is no doubt that the Fernie/Sparwood region leans heavily New Democrat, with the sawmill in Cranbrook long closed, the labour influence in the most heavily populated part of the riding has dwindled significantly. Bennett is also a bit of a street fighter. This riding should stay in Liberal hands.
    13 04 21 bza
    Originally, I was going to agree with some of the previous comments that Bennett's mavericky ways will get him re-elected.
    Though, P Kelley has a point and I think Bennett is as likely to go down as a lot of other BC Liberal incumbents.
    Especially when a good look is done at the history of this riding. Kootenany East has been won by the NDP lots before and Bennett almost lost it in 2005 when the previous NDP MLA ran against him.
    As much as Bennett is a loose cannon, he is still a Liberal in a riding with a history to suggest that he will get the boot. Cranbrook and Fernie are similar to other towns in the Kootenany's and can definitely lean left as well.
    13 04 13 P Kelly
    calling this one for Bill Bennett is flatly wrong. However personally popular he may be as a so-called maverick, he voted with the government on every time, uses the same talking points and has rallied behind Christy Clark as a hard line supporter.
    Not to mention that the BC Liberals are performing almost 20pts less under what they had in 2009 in the interior. Add in the rise of the BC Conservatives in rural BC and Bill Bennett will be hit with a perfect storm. This seat isn't even 'too close to call', it will flip to the NDP.
    13 03 26 GV
    A very interesting riding and quite distinct from its brashly leftist neighbours. Bill Bennett's barnstorming style and conflicted relationship with party leadership were a huge asset to him last time round. Will they suffice this time in helping him overcome large-scale BCL losses in the Interior? I have strong doubts. But I'm doubly doubtful that the opposition can be presumed victorious in a riding with such an idiosyncratic government candidate.
    It certainly would, however, be odd for the NDP to lose a riding that they even won in 1996 with the notably weak Erda Walsh.
    13 03 12 DFinch
    Bennett seems to be personally popular here, for his outspokenness and willingness to take a stand. While this will probably bolster him relative to other BC Liberal candidates, it will still be very difficult for his party to retain this seat. In the past two elections, the NDP has garnered 43% and 35% respectively. With the current and forseeable circumstance, it's difficult to envision them obtaining less than 40-45% of the vote share. While it's almost almost inconceivable to envision Bennett and the BC Libs retaining their approx 50% share, look for a drop of around 10-15%. This adds up to a fairly close result probably, but with a modest edge to the NDP of about 5%.
    A wildcard could be the Conservative performance here.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    A tight race that could go to the Liberals or the NDP. If I had to pick, I would pick NDP due to the desire for change, but nothing is in the bag here for either party.
    13 03 07 NO PARTISAN BS
    A tight race for a change that could be decided by the spillover from Kootenay West. Will the NDP send in workers and money to the East as the West is a walkover? It will be close,leaning NDP but not ready to call it yet.
    13 02 18 Laurence Putnam
    Bill Bennett is personally very popular - outpolled his own party's province-wide average by over 5 points last time. He'll need to improve upon that again to keep the seat this time, but he just might. His temporary leave from the Liberal caucus burnished his credentials as a representative of the people, not of the party, so any dislike of the leader in this riding might be mitigated somewhat by that. Without a doubt the Liberals' best chance of maintaining a toehold in this pocket of the province. I think the early money might just be on Bennett.

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