| ||13 05 12
||Advance Voting Analyst|
|Langley, Parksville-Qualicum, Penticton and Vernon are an interesting quartet to watch in this election. Each riding is built around an urban area that is itself just about riding-sized. They have all been faithfully Liberal ridings for the past two decades. Nonetheless, they have all been touted as possible NDP pickups in this election, thanks mainly to the 'rise' of the BC Conservatives and their ability to bleed votes from the Liberals.|
In reality, these four ridings may demonstrate why, even in the absence of a non-FPTP voting system, it is ultimately green, blue and grey supporters who will decide which way the riding will swing.
Langley is a Liberal riding surrounded by Liberal ridings. John Cummins and the Conservatives have flopped and Mary Polak's reelection here seems much more probable than it did a week or two ago. Voters did not rush to advance polls in Langley with the same excitement as in the other ridings where party leaders are on the ballot.
Of the four ridings listed at the top of this submission, Langley is the most likely Liberal hold.
| ||13 05 06
|Both Polak and Cummins are a little loopy for my tastes, but I think Polak will hang on. Cummins was mediocre in the debate and his party has stalled in the polls. Couple this with a modest liberal bounce in the polls and I think Polak will hang on.|
| ||13 05 05
|I'm calling this now for the Liberals because the Conservative vote is shriveling away. The much anticipated John Cummins surge is not happening and now that the debates are over will never happen. The die hard right wingers are coming back reluctantly to the Liberals while the soft Federal Liberal types such as the Gordon Wilsons of the world are also coming back. The coalition holds and the Liberals take this riding. |
| ||13 05 03
|If Cummins had never made it into the debate, he probably could have won here. It's not that he made any mistakes in the debate, it's that he was unimpressive; being that and leading a party at 9% in the polls means he will not win his seat.|
| ||13 05 03
|Going to make my official call for Polak and the BC Libs. Cummins hasn't found traction. Sure, he was in the debate but so was Chris Delaney in 2001 - that was good for 10% in his home riding. While this is Cummins home riding, his name equity is higher in the Delta ridings he once represented federally, his roots in this community just aren't as deep.|
Polak is visible and fairly popular amongst the conservative base in Langley. I think she will pull through.
| ||13 04 13
|I would definitely leave this in the too close to call category until later on in the election.|
Will all depend on how well John Cummins does in the riding.
If the Conservatives end up doing really well he could even possibly take it.
If however he only takes 20% of the vote or so, this could be a very narrow win for the NDP even if their 35% of the vote holds or grows marginally.
With some name recognition and incumbency Mary Polak could even hold on. Will be one to watch!
| ||13 03 27
|Robbed by Vicki Huntington of his natural political support base, John Cummins is not entirely at home in Langley. And it's difficult for me to draw a sharp distinction between the ideological personae of Cummins and Polak. But it can't be denied that the Conservative leader will draw substantial votes away from the Liberals--just probably not enough for him to win in his own right.|
On balance, I think a Polak win is more likely than an NDP upset here. This calculus will change, of course, if the Liberals' polling numbers drift unacceptably downward. At the moment, I just don't see the political conditions that would be necessary for the socialists to pull out a victory in the bible belt.
| ||13 03 08
||NO PARTISAN BS|
|Cummins is the key here. If he takes more than 15%, the NDP wins this seat. If not, the Liberals hang on in a squeaker.|
| ||13 02 23
|I'm expecting Mary Polak to hang on to this seat for the BC Liberals. However, the NDP could come up the middle if support for John Cummins of the BC Conservatives is stronger than expected. |
| ||13 02 18
|Disclosure: I'm personally rooting for John Cummins. I think he's a man of integrity who could bring a lot of that to the Legislature and give voice to a long overdue third point of view in the Legislature.|
With that said...I see some fundamental challenges here. First, Cummins' history was in the federal riding of Delta-Richmond East - not this riding - so his name equity is a little lower.
Chris Delaney was a debate participant in 2001 and only mustered a little over 10% of the vote in nearby Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain. Cummins probably needs 38% to win this. The campaign is going to have to really ignite provincewide to put this into contention. Free enterprise votes may flock to him in the event of a Liberal meltdown - right now, probably the best case scenario for some Conservative members in the next legislature - including Cummins.
My early money is on Polak, but of course the more Cummins can put the seat into contention the greater a three-way split is opened up. I will be watching with keen interest.