Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

North Vancouver-Lonsdale

Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 00:37:47

Constituency Profile


Cariou, Kimball

Conroy, Ryan

Hodgson, Carra-Lynn

Keating, Craig

Molyneaux, Allan John

Watt, Laurence

Yamamoto, Naomi

Naomi Yamamoto


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Naomi Yamamoto
    Janice Harris
    Michelle Corcos
    Ian McLeod
    Ron K. Gamble


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    13 05 13 Advance Voting Analyst
    How very fitting that the last riding for which this site made a call was North Vancouver-Lonsdale. I think this is a true toss-up. If there are still undecided voters as of tonight, then no one should claim to know the outcome in this riding: it's that close. Advance voting trends stood out here as North Vancouver-Lonsdale voters flocked to the polls at rates unmatched either in past elections or in other North Shore ridings.
    In the past, this riding has swung Liberal relative to the rest of the province. Only in one election did the local margin of victory mirror the provincial margin -- when Craig Keating was taking on an incumbent.
    This riding should remain TCTC until the ballots are counted, but forced to make a choice, the nod goes to the NDP.
    13 05 12 DFinch
    The Lower Mainland polling numbers are showing the NDP well ahead despite a softening province-wide. This will likely mean a large majority on May 14, considering the popular vote in 2009. While I'm quite sure Yamamoto has campaigned well, I don't think she can turn the tide. Look for Keating to become, in all likelihood, a one term MLA.
    13 05 03 Matt
    The post-debate polls have the race tightening substantially. I used to concur with tbe other posters that Naomi was done. I now think she will hang on in a close race.
    13 04 25 Laurence Putnam
    I didn't formally call it before, so I will do so now. So far, and with 19 days to go, Yamamoto is mounting a surprisingly weak effort reminiscent of the lame campaigns Katherine Whittred would proffer. Keating on the other hand is everywhere - walked by the campaign office on 14th last night and it was like a buzzing hive of orange bees!
    The Conservative is a last minute fill-in appointed to carry the banner in wake of the nominated candidate's resignation. Despite my interest in the race, this knocks my personal motivation to vote down to almost zero.
    Incidentally, while on my walk I ran into a gentleman who I will not name but who is well known in North Vancouver politics. I asked him what his read was on North Van-Lonsdale and he put his opinion succinctly:
    ?Naomi's toast.?
    I would have to agree.
    13 03 30 bza
    This will definitely be one of the closer races in the election for sure.
    Though, I think it will go NDP, with a less than 5% margin of victory most likely.
    Since it did go NDP in 1991 and since the NDP are way ahead in the polls this time around, that will be enough to flip it.
    I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals manage to hang onto this seat by the skin of their teeth however.
    13 03 25 GV
    This crunchy-granola constituency has always struck me as potential NDP real estate. But unlike their 1991 squeaker win, the party's 1996 defeat in this riding was not a close one. Unsurprising, given the North Shore's impeccable Liberal pedigree. And the Liberals appear to me to be on track to win about as many seats this year as they did 22 years ago. So the outcome in this riding is quite unsettled, but I would lean towards a narrow NDP victory.
    The variable I don't know much about is the candidates. Considering her public profile, I was surprised at Harris's modest showing last time--perhaps that says something about Yamamoto's strength. On the other hand, Keating seems to be a great NDP recruit who's organized the area successfully in the past. So I'm holding off for now.
    13 03 12 DFinch
    The NDP can't seem to ever break past 40% in this riding, even in 1991. The range of their vote, excluding the 2001 wipeout is from 35-40% historically. This may be the time we see them hit 40-45%. But I would not underestimate Yamamoto. She has a good grasp of social networking outreach and I think her campaigning could be formidable. I think this will be close, given the history and the players involved. But, barring a drastic change in public sentiment, she is in a very difficult fight indeed given her party's public approval.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    Unless the Liberals make a miracle comeback, this is one of those dominoes that will tip into the NDP column. A close race last time will be tight NDP win this time. I expect this will be the target seat for the NDP in this area.
    13 02 15 Laurence Putnam
    I'm going to agree with p. kelly this time and say ?not so fast?. I won't call it for the NDP yet, but Keating will be a formidable candidate, much more so than Harris last time. Keating himself garnered over 40% in 2005, and this time there are other issues. Let's be honest, even if Craig doesn't pick up new votes, Liberal supporters are less likely to come out this time. If the Conservatives beat expectations whatsoever and take as little as 7 or 8%, (not hard to do based even on last time's result) this could absolutely be an NDP seat. Not putting money on it yet, but I think it is way too presumptuous to name this one of the first 6 safest Liberal seats in the whole province....it isn't, by a longshot.
    13 02 10 p kelly
    Not so fast with the BC Liberal projection here. This seat has gone to the NDP in change-of-government elections. The NDP picked it up in 72 and 91 and barely lost it in 96 and 05. At a minimum, this one is on the fence, but almost every major poll has the NDP with a dominating lead in most areas of the lower mainland. The BC Liberals are in grave trouble here.
    13 02 10 Insider
    This riding could have slipped from the Liberals if the Conservatives were doing better. With the Conservative 'surge' being a temporary phenomenon, the Liberals will hold on to this even in a total meltdown.

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