Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

North Vancouver-Seymour

Prediction Changed
2013-05-14 23:49:20

Constituency Profile


Hanson, Jim

Smith, Daniel Scott

Thornthwaite, Jane

Webbe, Jaime Alexandra

Wilson, Brian R.

Jane Thornthwaite


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Jane Ann Thornthwaite
    Mo Norton
    Daniel Quinn
    Gary Bickling Hee


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    13 05 05
    In light of the province wide numbers pointing to a very narrow race and the apparent collapse of the Conservative vote, the anticipated Liberal collapse is not happening. In a way that's a shame, because Jim Hansen is a top notch candidate - bright, successful and an all round nice guy. He clearly is the superior candidate and one of the best the NDP has. Unfortunately, no liberals collapse and no Conservative surge means the liberals hold the seat.
    13 04 29 Laurence Putnam
    I understand that not everyone comes on here to make a prediction they would put money on - some people come on here to talk up a candidate they know, like or support - but really! Let's be realistic!!!
    The NDP don't have a snowball's chance in hell here. Some stats on the North Shore:
    Average price of a single detached family home in North Vancouver: $918,000. Almost three quarters own their own home. Almost half of those are owned clear title, no mortgage. One in every three household incomes are comprised in part or entirely from dividend income (meaning they own their own companies, or large blocks of shares in public companies). Approximately 1 in 7 children are privately schooled. Does any of this sound like an NDP riding to you?
    The NDP won this riding once, in 1972 owing to a four-way split. They got 32.9% in that race, their all-time best result ever here. They didn't even get that much in 1991 or 1996 when the NDP won governments. Even if they do that well again this time, it wouldn't be enough. Brian Wilson is mounting a strong effort for the Conservatives, but won't get more than 10%. Jaime Webb is an interesting wildcard running a legitimate independent campaign (campaign office and all), she will pick up a few votes that might have gone to the NDP, but probably shooting to tie third with the Conservatives.
    Jim Hanson is a great candidate for the NDP and he is without a doubt Thorntwaite's intellectual superior - but, again...let's be realistic.
    Even when Janice Harris ran for the NDP last go around, despite the fact she lived in this riding, and was Mayor here (different municipality from North Van-Lons riding for those who didn't know) she chose to run in North Vancouver-Lonsdale knowing she wouldn't have a hope here.
    Thorntwaite will lose votes along with the rest of the party and owing to her own bad behaviour, for sure. But she's still going to win this, even if she drops into the mid/high 40's (likely).
    13 04 27 NO PARTISAN BS
    The meltdown has not yet occurred but there are signs it may be coming. Anything less that 25% Liberal vote province wide puts this in the NDP column. The NDP vote province wide seems to have a floor of 45% and any fluctuations seem to be primarily between the Liberals and Conservatives in mainland ridings. Unless the Conservatives fade, the Liberals appear to be in for a long night.
    13 04 23 bza
    I would have to agree with CharlesD. I wouldn't call this a safe seat for the Liberals necessarily. If the Liberals continue to be down 20%, it makes the gap a lot more narrower.
    Most likely it will be a narrow Liberal hold, but if the NDP win more than 60 seats, this could be one that is picked up.
    13 04 01 CharlesD
    I think that the Liberal meltdown mentioned in earlier posts is going to happen. I was hoping it wouldn't be so but Christy Clark is dragging the party down. Not only that, the public is not happy to see what's happening with the Carbon tax collections diverting money from Crowns and schools to private companies. The Liberals are now polling behind in former strongholds like Cloverdale and even Vancouver Langara which has never been NDP in probably five decades. I think it could happen here, too, especially in light of the fact that the NDP is running Jim Hansen, a very strong candidate and an excellent high profile lawyer. No riding is safe for the Liberals.
    13 03 27 GV
    I'm leery about calling the North Shore an impregnable Liberal bastion, but we have to go back to 1991. Using a historical measuring rod, we find no evidence that the NDP has any particular appeal to the voters of this riding. Even if the Liberals start haemorrhaging support to the Dippers in a dramatic way, this riding (due to the paucity of Conservative support) will be one of the last ones to escape the party's clutches.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    Probable Liberal hold as the gap between them and the NDP is large. An NDP win here will occur only in a province wide Liberal meltdown.
    13 02 18 Laurence Putnam
    NDPers can bring up the ?driving incident? re: Thorntwaite all they want, it won't make much difference. Liberals will hold this riding, even if they dip a little under 50%. Hanson got on the ground early and will mount the best NDP campaign this riding has seen since 1991, but that won't change the inevitable result. The riding hasn't returned a New Democrat since 1972 when Colin Gabelmann began his career here winning a fluke race with 32.9%.
    13 02 10 Insider
    This riding could have slipped from the Liberals if the Conservatives were doing better. With the Conservative 'surge' being a temporary phenomenon, the Liberals will hold on to this even in a total meltdown.

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