Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 00:36:19

Constituency Profile


Avis, Barry

Coupland, David Bernard

Stilwell, Michelle

Ron Cantelon


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Ron Cantelon*
    Leanne Salter
    Wayne Osborne
    Bruce Ryder


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    13 05 12 Advance Voting Analyst
    Langley, Parksville-Qualicum, Penticton and Vernon are an interesting quartet to watch in this election. Each riding is built around an urban area that is itself just about riding-sized. They have all been faithfully Liberal ridings for the past two decades. Nonetheless, they have all been touted as possible NDP pickups in this election, thanks mainly to the 'rise' of the BC Conservatives and their ability to bleed votes from the Liberals.
    In reality, these four ridings may demonstrate why, even in the absence of a non-FPTP voting system, it is ultimately green, blue and grey supporters who will decide which way the riding will swing.
    If the NDP is ever to win Parksville-Qualicum, one might think now would be the time. The party is polling strongly on the island, and the otherwise weak Conservatives have fielded a candidate who is more popular than his party. Meanwhile, the Greens have offered nobody at all.
    Still, the NDP have to dig themselves out of a 13-point hole to pull it off. Given the riding's dynamics, I think they can pull half of that directly from displaced Green voters. The remaining half either has to come directly from the Liberals or through Conservative siphoning of Liberal votes.
    Relatively static poll numbers on Vancouver Island may well be hiding another storyline. The Liberals look ready to win at least 30% of the island vote. As Green numbers tick up down-island, it seems the Liberals may be abandoned outright in some ridings, and may finish third in a few of them. If this is the case, it may actually have a positive impact on the Liberals' vote efficiency on the island. As many as ten of the island's ridings would have Liberal vote shares in the 20s, leaving a good number of votes to be shared around the stronger Liberal ridings -- and well over 40% in Parksville-Qualicum.
    Given that Oak Bay-Gordon Head is a total crapshoot, Parksville-Qualicum is the best candidate to save the Liberals from being wiped off the island completely. It will be very close, but unless the Conservatives can get well into double digits, it's the Liberals' to win.
    13 05 13 GM
    I think the Liberals may well rue the day that they choose such a token candidate for this riding. My suspicion is that no one took it seriously when they were so low in the polls so this candidate with zero real world experience, knowledge or talent was able to secure the nomination without much challenge. They will lose this riding for sure because they have the wrong candidate. The NDP are running a very strong candidate, one who appeals to business people and seniors alike. The ways the polls have tightened, I believe that the Liberals would have held this seat if they had selected a more appropriate and qualified candidate.
    13 05 10 Rod
    It's a pity there are political parties involved. Dr. Coupland of the Conservatives is head and shoulders above not only the NDP's Avis, but especially the lightweight Stillwell
    13 04 30 DL
    Note that in 2009 the Green party took almost 10% of the vote in this riding...this time they are not running a candidate while the BC Conservatives are running an aggressive campaign. I think about 75% (if not more) of the people who would have voted Green will vote NDP when they see no Green name on the ballot and the BC Conservatives will cut into Liberals support...that plus the general Liberal to NDP swing across the province will make this an easy NDP pick-up.
    13 04 30 AR
    The strongest candidate for the BC Conservatives on Vancouver Island is running here. So despite being one of the best chances for the Liberals to retain a seat on the Island, the vote split favours the NDP candidate here.
    13 04 28 BCL
    The NDP isn't polling much higher in this riding then they did four years ago and Liberal candidate michelle stilwell has been gaining momentum as the race has continued. The Conservatives could cause some damage but not enough to put this riding into another column. Liberal win here..
    13 04 25 Island Resident
    Look at the margin last time. Cantelon won the riding by over 13%. The BCNDP isn't polling much higher than their 2009 share, so they aren't the beneficiaries of lost BC Liberal support. They could win with ~40%. But my guess is that by election day, enough people leaning BC Conservative will stick with vote BC Liberal to hold this seat.
    13 04 20 GV
    Though I was once leery of saying this, I've come to the conclusion that the Liberals are in too weak a position on Vancouver Island to hold this riding. They've brought in a star candidate--a Paralympian sprinter--but that looks to me like a Hail Mary pass. This seat should be a one-time only NDP win; there's a lot of Liberal strength in this area due to the large population of conservative retirees. NDP policy on ferry rates should play well here.
    13 03 30 bza
    Although this will be one of the closer races on the island, the NDP is averaging somewhere around a 20% lead in the polls for the island.
    This riding did go NDP in the 1991 win as well, so I think the swing is enough across the island that this riding will also go NDP. And with that most likely sweep the island.
    13 03 21 Laurence Putnam
    I would have held out on this one as it appears to be the likeliest shot the Liberals would have at a toehold on the island. On the other hand, based on the last results the NDP need to flip a grand total of 1,500 Liberal votes over to their side to take it...hardly a quixotic feat.
    I`ll call it now for the NDP - with Cantelon stepping aside, he must have a pretty fair inkling that things aren't set to go his way this time. Add to that the province-wide polling, the presence of the Conservatives here to split the vote and the NDP candidate being a City Councillor who has been doorknocking the riding for the past year and a half...and I think the NDP will be able to chalk it up.
    I`ll agree with some of the others...it`s going to be an NDP perfect sweep on the Island. At this stage, the likelier spoiler of an NDP shutout bid would be a surprise Green seat on the Gulf Islands...but I`m not betting on that.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    This will be the closest race but like the others, the NDP will sweep the Island and the only issues to be decided are the margin of victory and how much the Green vote will grow.
    13 02 09 P Kelly
    This is a swing riding. With the NDP holding at least a 20pt lead on the island, this bastion of liberal support will finally collapse. Parksville has had more and more younger families. modest income earners that have moved to town than what existed in the last few election. Here, like everywhere else, voters are ready for change.

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